Selection Sunday Stumpers

As Matt posted below, the mock committee has our top 40 seeded and the bottom 5 seeded. That leaves just 20 spots to seed and we will go through and thoroughly debate the S-Curve rankings for any possible changes.

Here are some of the topics we debated this weekend...

-The final No. 1 seed

The mock committee all agrees that there are six deserving No. 1 seeds, but the prevailing thought was that Ohio State because of being the No. 1 team in the nation's No. 1 rated conference according to the RPI, has earned the nod slightly over Memphis or Texas. It was helped that they got to the Big Ten Tournament finals today, although we voted on the first four lines of the S-Curve on Friday night. However, because Ohio State beat Indiana, the committee has elected, for now, to keep them as the No. 1

-The final at-large bid

Here are the at-large bids. Currently, there are 37 teams listed but at least 3 spots open up today because of teams on our list earning an automatic bid. That will even the list down to 34 teams. There will be a 4th spot open up if Florida beats South Carolina in the SEC Championship... that's where the debate ensues. We currently have Creighton taking that final spot over Michigan, Houston and Florida State, but there is still a debate over Creighton and Michigan for the last spot. It's possible we may vote Michigan in as the final team given the injury situation and some of their losses coming less than full strength.

(* denotes playing for conference championship)
1. Duke*
2. Ohio State*
3. Texas*
4. Florida*
5. Boston College*
6. Iowa*
7. Kansas*
8. Alabama
9. Arizona
10. Arkansas
11. Bradley
12. California
13. Connecticut
14. George Washington
15. Georgetown
16. Illinois
17. Indiana
18. Kentucky
19. LSU
20. Marquette
21. Michigan State
22. North Carolina
23. North Carolina State
24. Northern Iowa
25. Oklahoma
26. Pittsburgh
27. Tennessee
28. Texas A&M
29. UAB
30. Villanova
31. Washington
32. West Virginia
33. Wichita State
34. Wisconsin

Also in (waiting on the guaranteed spots to open up)

Cincinnati
Missouri State
Seton Hall

Creighton or Michigan will get the spot if South Carolina does not upset Florida

3-11 Committee Meeting:

With it now less than 24 hours away from Selection Sunday, the committee went into full throttle tonight, rounding out the at large field, and filling a good chunk of the S Curve.

The first order of business was to fill the slots that opened on the at large board. In the initial vote, Cal and Texas A&M jumped from the nomination board into the field of 65, a sentiment echoed by all committee members.

After five more spots opened during the day, Bradley. Cincinnati, Missouri State, Seton Hall and UAB joined the at large board.

Missouri State has been a real conundrum throughout the week. Basically, it's a #19 RPI competing with the fact they are just 5-8 vs top 100 teams. In the end, the committee agreed they belonged in the field, as an 8-6 road and neutral record and 8-2 record in their last ten games overshawed mediocre mark vs top 100 teams.

With South Carolina, a team that has no hope for an at large bid, playing in the SEC Finals, the last spot in the field is currently unavailable, but should Florida prevail tomorrow, Creighton currently sits in the perilous position of last team in the field, or possibly first team out of the field. The other team in competition for that final spot appears to be Michigan, and this debate will continue on tomorrow.

Now, some changes were made to the S Curve, with the most notable being Iowa jumping up onto the 2 line at #8 on S Curve. Personally, I believe either UNC or UCLA to be more deserving of the final two seed, but my claims fell on deaf ears. On the other hand, we boldly believe Ohio State to be more deserving on the last one seed than Memphis or Texas, and I agree with this.

Here is the current S Curve, 1-16:
1. UConn
2. Duke
3. Villanova
4. Ohio State
5. Memphis
6. Texas
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. North Carolina
10. LSU
11. UCLA
12. Pitt
13. Gonzaga
14. West Virginia
15. Tennessee
16. Florida

I would have Boston College on the 4 line ahead of West Virginia, who has gone just 4-6 down the stretch, admittedly against a difficult schedule. Also, while I believe Pitt to be the better overall team, I would probably flip them and Gonzaga.

Now, I think for most part, 17-40 on the S Curve looks to be very well done.

17. Boston College
18. Kansas
19. Georgetown
20. Michigan State
21. Washington
22. Marquette
23. George Washington
24. Oklahoma
25. Nevada
26. Indiana
27. Syracuse
28. Wichita State
29. Wisconsin
30. Northern Iowa
31. Arkansas
32. Kentucky
33. NC State
34. Arizona
35. Southern Illinois
36. Alabama
37. Texas A&M
38. California
39. Bradley
40. Bucknell

We have also started seeding the bottom the bracket, 61-65.
61. Belmont
62. Albany
63. Monmouth
64. Southern
65. Monmouth

Tonight, the following teams gained automatic bids:
Xavier-Atlantic 10
Albany-America East
Syracuse-Big East
Pacific-Big West
Memphis-Conference USA
Kent State-MAC
Hampton-MEAC
San Diego State-Mountain West
UCLA-Pac Ten
Southern-SWAC
Nevada-WAC

Later today, we will meet to discuss the potential of selecting the final at large bid, and fill and make whatever changes necessary on the S Curve.

3-9 Committee Meeting:

In the first order of business, BYU, Colorado, Utah State and Vanderbilt were voted off the nomination board, eliminating them from consideration for NCAA Tournament. Of the four, only Utah State is still playing in their conference tourney, but will require the WAC auto bid to get in.

In the next order of business, Syracuse was unanimously elected in the field, as an at large spot is now guaranteed to open up from the Big Ten.

After that, the committee has started work on the S Curve, although the frightening eye injury suffered by Allen Ray will likely knock Nova down a few spots.

Current S Curve:
1. Villanova
2. UConn
3. Duke
4. Ohio State
5. Memphis
6. Texas
7. Illinois
8. UNC
9. LSU
10. Iowa
11. UCLA
12. Pitt
13. Gonzaga
14. West Virginia
15. Tennessee
16. Florida

Georgetown, Michigan State, Boston College and Kansas are leftovers from final vote.

Games to follow tomorrow(all times eastern):
A-10 Finals:
St. Joe's vs Xavier, 6 p.m.-ESPN

ACC Semifinals:
Duke vs. Wake Forest, 1:30 p.m. -ESPN
North Carolina vs. Boston College, 4 p.m.-ESPN

America East Championship:
Vermont vs. Albany, 12 p.m.-ESPN2

Big Ten Semis:
Michigan State-Iowa, 1:30 p.m.-CBS
Ohio State-Indiana, 4 p.m.-CBS

Big 12 Semis:
Texas-Texas A&M, 2 p.m.-ESPN2
Kansas-Nebraska, 4:30 p.m.-ESPN2

Big East Finals:
Syracuse-Pitt, 8 p.m.-ESPN

Big West Finals:
Pacific vs Long Beach State, 12 a.m.-ESPN

Conference USA Finals:
Memphis-UAB, 11:35 a.m.-CBS

MAC Finals:
Kent State vs. Toledo, 6:30 p.m.-ESPN2

MEAC Finals:
Delaware State vs. Hampton, 7:30 p.m.-ESPN Classic

Mountain West Finals:
San Diego State vs Wyoming, 10 p.m.-ESPN

Pac 10 Finals:
UCLA vs Cal, 6:15 p.m.-CBS

SEC Semis:
South Carolina vs. Kentucky, 1:00 p.m.
LSU vs. Florida, 3:15 p.m.

SWAC Finals:
Arkansas Pine-Bluff vs. Southern, 7:30 p.m.-ESPNU

WAC Finals:
Utah State vs. Nevada, 9 p.m eastern-ESPN2

Sunday (all times eastern):
ACC Finals:
Duke/Wake vs. BC/UNC, 1 p.m.-ESPN

Big 10 Finals:
OSU/Indiana vs. Iowa/Michigan State, 3:30 p.m.-CBS

Big 12 Finals:
Texas/Texas A&M vs. Kansas/Nebraska, 3:00 p.m.-ESPN

SEC Finals:
South Carolina/Kentucky vs. Florida/LSU, 1 p.m.-CBS

Southland Finals:
Northwestern State vs. Sam Houston, 1 p.m.-ESPN2

Square peg through a round hole

That's how I would describe the pending eight or nine spots expected to open up by way of an at-large bid.

We have all 34 at-large spots currently filled as of last night. We had one spot available a few days back when Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference automatic bid by virtue of their win over Loyola Marymount, but as the mock committee's first order of business last night, we voted unanimously to remove Cincinnati from the field - at least for now.

The mock committee determined that with the Bearcats' loss to Syracuse in the first round of the Big East Tournament on Wednesday, they were not safely in the field and we should remove them for further consideration against the rest of the nomination board.

Previously, Indiana, Bradley, Seton Hall and Alabama had been held over as the top four vote-getters from a previous ballot. So as the next step in the process, each mock committee member identified four more teams from the nomination board with the top four vote-getters joining those four in what's called a "cross-country" vote, which is essentially ranking eight (8) teams 1-8.

Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan and UAB were the four teams that received the most votes.

Before ranking these eight teams, I felt it was absolutely necessary we discuss these teams very closely. After all, we all felt that picking teams from the list at this point in the process had become extremely difficult which could only mean we had to be very choosy.

There was a lot of sentiment that Syracuse did not yet belong in the discussion. There was equal sentiment, however, that Indiana and Alabama were by far the most appealing teams remaining. Since we were all in agreement that Indiana and Alabama should fill the remaining two spots, we all decided to vote them 1-2 on this 1-8 ranking to assure their inclusion.

The ballots went as expected, and Indiana and Alabama made it safely on our at-large board with Michigan, UAB, Seton Hall and Bradley earning the right to be holdovers for the next ballot.

As it currently stands, a maximum of nine (9) more spots could open up on the at-large board. This is based on if every conference favorite wins their conference tournament this weekend, and if not, a team from our at-large board (at least in the major conferences) win it instead.

Those nine spots potentially will be filled from teams on the nomination board. Last night, with very little resistence, we voted off Charlotte, Old Dominion, Stanford, UTEP, Virginia and Western Kentucky as we determined those six teams had no shot of earning an at-large bid.

The new nomination board includes the following 20 teams left for possible at-large consideration:

Air Force
Bucknell (playing for the Patriot League Championship against Holy Cross this weekend)
BYU
California
Cincinnati
Colorado
Creighton
Florida State
George Mason
Hofstra
Houston
Maryland
St. Joseph's
San Diego State (favored to win Mountain West conference automatic bid)
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Texas A&M
UAB
Utah State
Vanderbilt

Tonight, we plan to convene to discuss these teams a little more as well as discussing seeding for the higher seeds. Our tentative plan is to begin seeding tomorrow night for the top seeds, and if the weekend games change our minds on anything we have done, we can vote to make a few changes where necessary.

3-8 Committee Meeting:

Tonight, we reconvened for first time since Sunday. With Gonzaga narrowly escaping the WCC tourney, the come off the at large board and onto the automatic board. They are joined by the following teams:

Iona-Metro Atlantic
Monmouth-Northeast
Montana-Big Sky
Oral Roberts-Mid Continent
South Alabama-Sun Belt
UNC-Wilmington-Colonial
Wisconsin-Milwaukee-Horizon

Tony Skinn may have knocked George Mason right out of the NCAA Tournament with his groin punch against a Hofstra player. The Patriots's second leading scorer will miss their first postseason game, and that will likely knock them out of the Big Dance, as their case isn't strong enough to overcome that fact.

After a loss today to Syracuse in the Big East Tourney, Cincy has come off our at large board for now. The Bearcats are just 6-10 without Armein Kirkland, but with none of those being real bad losses, and with over West Virginia since then, it appears they will sneak into the field.

Indiana and Alabama, on the other hand, join our 32 holdovers on the at large board. With both having strong conferences and overall better resumes than rest of the pack, their spots are well earned.

In our next official committee meeting Friday night, we will hopefully be able to fill a few more at large spots, and these four teams will join four others from nomination board in the next round of voting.

Bradley
Michigan
Seton Hall
UAB

Tomorrow night, we will have an unofficial discussion of bubble teams, but come Friday night, we start to put the finishing touches on the field.

Loyola Marymount almost did us a favor last night...

When the LMU player threw that little wrap-around baseline pass to a wide open Lion teammate on the block, I thought for sure Gonzaga had lost and my job had gotten much easier. Of course if you think it would have made it easier for me or the other nine mock committee members, just imagine the relief it would have created for the real 10 troopers that have millions of fans ready to critique their every move, their every misstep.

In our replicated bracket, Gonzaga is already on the at-large board. A win by the Lions over 'Zaga would have merely meant that one less spot would opened up this week for teams on the nomination board to be selected from. That would have meant a Bradley, Florida State, Air Force or Syracuse would have not made it.

With one current spot open on the at-large board now that Gonzaga has been added to the automatic bid list, at least one more team will be dancing on Sunday that isn't currently in our field. In totaling up the number of teams from the at-large board that could eventually win their automatic bid, the maximum number of spots that will open up for at-large teams is 10.

That means no more than 10 from a list of the following teams will make the tournament, and it will be even less if teams like George Washington or Nevada lose, or bubble teams or bottom feeders win the big conferences: Air Force, Alabama, Bradley, BYU, Bucknell (favored to win the automatic bid for the Patriot League anyhow), California, Charlotte, Colorado, Creighton, Florida State, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, San Diego State, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, UTEP and Utah State.

Last night, I went back and accumulated the records for our current list of 33 at-large teams and roughly 10 automatic bids and stacked up each nomination for how they have done against the field (teams that are already in) and how they have done against other teams being considered. Here were the highs and lows:

Alabama 6-5 against teams in the field (TIF) and 1-0 against teams under consideration (TUC)
Seton Hall 5-4 TIF; 1-0 TUC
Bradley 5-6 TIF; 3-1 TUC
Creighton 4-4 TIF; 1-2 TUC
Kentucky 4-8 TIF; 0-3 TUC
California 3-4 TIF; 2-1 TUC
Michigan 3-6 TIF; 1-1 TUC
Syracuse 3-8 TIF; 1-2 TUC
George Mason 2-1 TIF; 1-3 TUC
Houston 2-1 TIF; 1-2 TUC

Air Force 0-1 TIF; 1-1 TUC
Bucknell 0-3 TIF; 1-0 TUC
Florida State 1-5 TIF; 3-0 TUC
Texas A&M 1-5 TIF; 2-0 TUC
UAB 1-1 TIF; 2-2 TUC
Hofstra 1-2 TIF; 4-0 TUC

Using this criteria along with strength of schedule (SOS), records against top 50, quality wins, bad losses (outside of the top 100) as well as the average win and loss against the RPI, I proceeded to make my own bracket, which is the second to last one of the 2006 tournament season - the final one I'll produce on Sunday.

What I found was that I was having a relatively easy time picking the field until I got down to the last 5 or 6 at-large spots after the projected automatic bids had been removed from my board (this is assuming teams like Nevada and GW win their leagues).

I agree with our committee about Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Missouri State and Northern Iowa being in the field as of today, so I wound up including all 6 in my personal bracket yesterday.

But when it was all said and done, here are the teams I included and left out with a breakdown of why or why not for each one...

In

Alabama (RPI: 46) - The tide is 6-5 against TIF and 1-0 against others in consideration as mentioned above. They have played just nine (9) games against teams ranked below No. 100 in the RPI and only Duke and Connecticut have a better average of their collective wins against the RPI than does the Crimson Tide.

Bradley (34) - Although I felt the Braves would make it, and they did for me last night, it was a little closer than I expected. They were one of my last four to make the field along with Creighton, Texas A&M and Florida State. I had been thinking they would make the field ahead of Creighton, but now I don't believe that's the case. Creighton has a better record in the MVC including the conference tournament, Creighton is 3-1 against the RPI top 100 in the non-conference while Bradley is 2-1, Creighton had a tougher non-conference SOS (85) compared to Bradley's 153 and lastly, Bradley's lone top 50 road win is against Northern Iowa while Creighton has won at Northern Iowa and also at George Mason. However, the fact that Bradley is 7-6 against the top 50 and 7-3 in their last 10 games puts them in - barely, IMO.

Bucknell (51) - At one time, Bucknell was considered a safe pick even if they slipped up in the Patriot League Tournament, but now it's not such a sure thing. Their RPI has been falling like a rock in the ocean because of their conference schedule. What's worse is that their profile victory against Syracuse earlier in the season suddenly doesn't look so good. If they win their tournament, they are in anyhow. Right now they look like they are in even as an at-large bid, but then again, you have to wonder if they have enough to withstand a second bad loss outside the top 100 if they lose in their tournament.

California (59) - With wins @UCLA and then home against Washington and Arizona, a 12-6 Pac 10 record should get the Golden Bears in the field, albeit as a low seed. Their worst loss of the year against Eastern Michigan to begin the season was without star Leon Powe.

Creighton (42) - See Bradley

Florida State (56) - The Seminoles are a tough case. They have arguably the biggest win of any of the bubble teams (Duke), but little else. Their only other top 50 win was against Maryland, a team that has lost to pretty much every team they have faced ranked higher than they are. What's worse, Florida State is just 1-5 against the current mock selection committee field and has a non-conference SOS of 318 (122 overall). On the bright side, Florida State is 3-0 against other teams considered, is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they have only one loss outside the top 100 (Virginia Tech). I gave them the nod as my last team in, but I'm warming up slowly to their resume even more.

Kentucky (39) - I won't spend much time talking about the Wildcats because I think they're safe, but it's clear they are at least a better basketball team than they were in December or early January. Kentucky has no bad losses and a neutral court win against West Virginia highlights a moderately tough schedule.

Michigan (37) - The Wolverines do have three (3) wins against the RPI top 25, but all of those are at home. Although they have only one bad loss (Purdue) this season, injuries have resulted in a 4-6 finish. The committee will take those injuries into consideration and (I think) will cause them to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt. Howevever, Michigan's best win away from Crisler Arena (and only road top 100 win) was against Minnesota and they didn't distinguish themselves much in the non-conference season with their best wins coming against Butler, Miami (Fla) and Notre Dame. How much the committee gives them leeway for those injuries might tell the story on Michigan and whether they get in. With Lester Abram set to return, I tend to think they'll be given the benefit of the doubt.

Seton Hall (48) - Because of a poor finish and a combined 100-point-plus losses to Duke and Connecticut, the Pirates were left for dead a little over a week ago. However, a win against Cincinnati at home and then an upset win on the road against Pittsburgh this past week may have gotten Seton Hall in the field. They are now sitting with 5 wins against the top 50, including 3 on the road - Pittsburgh, N.C. State and Syracuse. I think they've done enough.

Texas A&M (49) - From a profile standpoint, A&M reminds me of the UAB teams the last couple of years except that they have a key victory (Texas). Of course, UAB also has a key win this year too, but more on that later. At 10-6 in the Big 12 and with the win against Texas, A&M's modest profile should get them in based on the fact they have no sub-100 losses and are 8-2 over their last 10 games. Their non-conference season wasn't stout, but there has been worse. The best part about A&M is that over half of their 7 losses came against the RPI top 50.

UAB (44) - Same story, different season. Weak schedule, no bad losses, and few key wins. Fortunately this year, they have a win against a top 5 team in Memphis. UAB should make it easily.

I'll examine the teams that I didn't include later.

First official meeting recap:

Well, things are now underway and 40 of the 65 spots in this year's field have already been filled.

In the first official ballot, the following teams received all of the eligible votes and unanimously qualified for the at large board.

Boston College, Connecticut, Duke, George Washington, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State

The next four teams received the necessary all but two of the eligible votes and made the board:

Florida, Nevada, North Carolina State, Wisconsin

After these teams were selected, another six teams were voted onto the at large in order to fill all 34 at large spots. The committee voted the following six teams onto the board.

Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Missouri State and Northern Iowa

After a strong debate on whether Missouri State belonged, the committee ultimately kept them on the board, as a motion to remove them from the board soundly failed.

Now, these six teams have earned their way into the field, captruing an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Davidson (Southern), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Pennsylvania (Ivy), Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)

Now, eight spots on the at large board project to open up at this time, although George Washington, Gonzaga and Memphis could decrease that number if they lose in their conference tournament. These spots will be filled by the following teams that currently sit on the nomination board.

Air Force, Alabama, Bradley, Bucknell, BYU, California, Charlotte, Colorado, Creighton, Florida State, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Old Dominion, Saint Joseph’s, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin-Milwaukee

As the week progresses, the at large spots that open up will be filled, and the 65 teams will be seeded accordingly. While this may be a difficult process, the committee looks forward to meeting the tough challenge at hand.

It's Go Time:

Tonight official business gets under way, and we have the results of the Official At Large and Nomination Boards. Here is my at large ballot, which is comprised of teams who I fell are in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens the rest of the season.

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Boston College
• Connecticut
• Duke
• Florida
• Georgetown
• George Washington
• Gonzaga
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• LSU
• Marquette (ineligible)
• Memphis
• Michigan State
• Nevada
• North Carolina
• North Carolina State
• Northern Iowa
• Oklahoma
• Ohio State
• Pittsburgh
• Seton Hall
• Tennessee
• Texas
• UCLA
• Villanova
• Washington
• West Virginia
• Wichita State
• Wisconsin

Indiana and Kentucky, with strong finishes, have solidified their case for at large bids. Seton Hall, with 2 more top 50 wins, has also ensured their place in the Field of 65, as with 5 top 50 wins, three of them on the road, the Pirates will be dancing. In the Missouri Valley, I feel that both Wichita State and Northern Iowa are locks, as their resumes are both rock solid. Bradley and Missouri State are also both tournament worthy teams in my eyes, but not quite among the top 34 teams. Cregihton will be one of the last few teams in or out, and cannot afford for Gonzaga and George Washington to lose in their conference tournaments.

Last few teams not quite on my at large ballot:
George Mason-They are probably already in, but I'm just hesitant to declare them a lock, especially if they lose tonight to Hofstra.

Michigan-The Wolverines should be in the field, but that home loss to Indiana, combined with the 3-8 record vs top 50, means I cannot declare them a lock yet.

Cincinnati-Went a long ways towards earning a bid by beating West Virginia yesterday, but cannot afford a poor showing against Syrcause in the Garden.

Arizona-A win last night, and they would have been on my ballot. Very strong RPI and SOS means it will impossible to totally leave them out of the field, but lack of success verus top teams makes them wait for a few spots on the at large board to clear up.

It's Almost Crunch Time

Greetings and salutations to all the aspiring resident bracketologists reading our blog. My name is Kyle Lamb and I'm a writer for Bucknuts.com and Bucknuts the Magazine covering Ohio State athletics, as well as high school sports for JJHuddle.com, Ohio High Magazine and U-Weekly, an independent campus newspaper in Columbus.

As my fine colleague Mr. Zuchowski has mentioned, we're doing a mock selection committee again this season for the 4th consecutive year. It started in 2003 as a mock committee for Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com. Palm had his own mock committee the year before, but didn't have the time to do another one, so I volunteered for acting as the so-called "committee chairman."

As someone that had been doing my own brackets since I was 14 years old (as I'm now 25), I assembled a 10-man crew from members of CollegeRPI.com, which today still has five members from our first group.

We haven't served in any official capacity with Mr. Palm the last few years, but we have continued the committee because it's fun for us wannabe bracketologists. With respect to Joe Lunardi, the results the last few years have indicated that perhaps ESPN should staff us as their "experts" instead of Mr. Lunardi.

On this season's committee, I believe we have pretty good chemistry. We have to work hard by committee procedures to eliminate any potential bias by disallowing voting by our members on the school they follow. Everyone on our committee is knowledgeable and would not let any bias cloud their judgment, but when you represent a school, the selection committee principals don't allow you to make any votes that include that school.

This year, we have a lot of people from the Midwest - moreso than the "real" committee would have. To gain another voice, I have brought back an 11th consultant from out West, a gentleman that served on our first two committees.

The real committee would have members serving from all over the country and also representing the smaller conferences. While our group might not have the resources to do that, past results have dictated we have a decent handle on what the committee is looking for, and have produced, with fairly high results might I add, brackets that closely resembled the real thing on selection Sunday.

In none of our previous three seasons have we missed more than one (1) at-large bid of 34 teams. In fact, of 102 at-large teams selected in a 3-year span, we have got 100 of the 102 correct, missing only one each of the last two years - pretty good success rate if I may say so.

Last year we got 56 of the 65 teams within one seed of their actual seed. Of those 56, nearly 30 of them we got exactly right, and we had something like 6 or 7 games exactly like the selection committee had.

Of course, we're not perfect and we've had our fair share of misses, too. Trying to put yourself in the mind of the selection committee is nearly an impossible task. Therefore, our M.O. has always been to use the criteria and information presented before us, examine each profile extensively, and make our decisions based on common sense and hope the committee is seeing the same thing. If we try to project the field, we sometimes have an added task of also trying to project what the committee is thinking. So in essence, we keep it simple and just use our own judgments based on precedent and the rest usually takes care of itself.

Over the next week, we are going to detail every move we make as a mock selection comittee, and we will follow the NCAA Tournament guidelines. This will give insight as to how the committee operates, although we do our meetings via a chat room on an instant messenger client, as we don't have the money or time to lock ourselves in a hotel room for 3 days in Indianapolis.

Our process officially begins Sunday evening. We will have everyone submit a list of up to 34 teams that deserve an at-large bid based on their successful play to date. This does not take into account the fact that some of these teams may wind up winning an automatic bid for their conference later in the week. Additionally, this list does not have to be of 34 teams, it can be less.

Secondly, we will also have every member list every other team that they feel deserves to be considered for an at-large. There is no minimum or maximum for this second ballot.

Any team on the first ballot receiving all but two of their eligible votes will be placed on the initial at-large board and is officially in the field of 65 already. Usually based on precedent, about 28 teams make this initial vote. It's also important to note that any team can be voted off the board at any time with a vote of all but two eligible votes.

Every other team receiving at least two votes for the first ballot and/or receiving at least two ore more eligible votes for the second ballot will be placed on the "nomination" board for consideration. Additionally, any team that won or shared the regular season league title for their conference automatically is placed on the nomination board of teams to consider, provided they have not won their conference' automatic bid.

This process in real life begins usually on Tuesday, but because we don't have as much time as the real committee, we start it a few days early to get a head start. Last year, we needed every extra minute possible as we didn't conclude our bracket until 15 or 20 minutes before 6 PM.

That's it in a nutshell. I'll have much more, including some of my thoughts on various issues later.

A few thoughts and announcements:

The bubble has become real interesting with Seton Hall, Florida State and Texas A&M all getting big wins in the last two days. UAB has their chance tonight against Memphis, a game they must win to remain in the at large picture. Meanwhile, UNC-Wilmington, Hofstra and Air Force now must really do damage in their conference tournaments, if not outright winning them, in order to get into the Field of 65.

The Missouri Valley tournament will be real interesting. As of now, I'd say that Wichita State, Missouri State, Creighton and Northern Iowa are probably in the field, although UNI could really use a win in MVC quarters against Mizzou State. Southern Illinois and Bradley are both firmly on the bubble, and each could use a couple of wins in St. Louis to feel safe on Selection Sunday. Still, it is surely not inconceivable that MVC will get 6 bids, and they look real good for 4 or 5.

A real interesting Pac 10 game tonight with Cal having a chance to firmly plant themselves into the field with a win over UCLA in Berkeley tonight. Even with a gaudy 11-5 Pac 10 record, Cal's resume could really use this trademark win. A loss tonight, and Cal may be in some trouble.

Colorado may be in deep trouble after a blowout loss at Kansas. Currently sitting at 8-7 in the Big 12, with their only big win versus Oklahoma, the Buffaloes appear to be on a very similar track to 2004, where their very uninspiring resume left them out of the party despite a 10-6 conference record.

As of now, I'd project that following teams from potential one bid leagues would be in the field no matter what:
George Mason-Colonial
George Washington-Atlantic 10
Gonzaga-WCC
Memphis-Conference USA

Noticably absent from this list is Bucknell, who in my eyes is far from safe. Like Vermont last season, they have been one of the best mid-major stories, but a loss in the Patriot League tourney could be very damaging to their at large profile. A very apt comparison would be Utah State in 2004, who had a very similar overall record and was also ranked last in the season. Like the 2004 Aggies, they only have one win over a likely tournament team(Syracuse), and have an almost identical RPI(42,43) and SOS(172, 186). I personally thought that Utah State was an NCAA Tournament caliber team that year, much like I think Bison belongs in the Big Dance, but you can't base selecting teams on personal feelings. That Northern Iowa game really looms large now, because that is what is probably keeping the Panthers safely in the field, while Bucknell better not lose in the Patriot League tourney. If Bucknell were to be tripped up early in the Patriot League tourney like Utah State, don't be shocked if the Bison's name is absent on Selection Sunday.

Major Announcement:
Come Sunday night, we will have our first look at the official at large board as the committee gets down to business. Most likely by the end of the night, we should have that board filled with 34 teams.

2-26 Official Committee Meeting:

With it being just one week before official business starts, the at large ballot, while still unofficial, is starting to become a better indicator of how things will go down. Here are the ballot results from tonight's meeting.

The following teams were unanimously named:
Boston College
Connecticut
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
George Washington
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa
LSU
Marquette
Memphis
Michigan
Michigan State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Texas
UCLA
Villanova
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

These teams also received enough votes to be on the at large board:
Kansas
Nevada
Wichita State

Three teams fall one vote short:
Arizona
Missouri State
Northern Iowa

The following teams also received multiple votes:
Alabama
Arkansas
Bucknell
Creighton
George Mason
Kentucky
Syracuse

One of the major points of the discussion were two of the at large candidates from the Colonial, UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra. While some were in the camp that Hofstra should likely be in because of a 38 RPI, their SOS of 157 really damaged their cause in other's eyes, myself included. A debate ensued over the New RPI, which clearly favors the mid-majors because of the emphasis on road wins, and some committee members believe that their RPI's are inflated, especially the two Colonial teams.

It was widely believed that Indiana greatly helped their cause with today's win over Michigan State. Indiana would likely now be part of the Field of 65, but face a no-win situation at rival Purdue this week.

With the 1 seeds barring unforeseen circumstances being Duke, UConn, Villanova and Memphis, a debate over the top seed emerged. The two main candidates, who have very similar profiles, are Texas and Ohio State. Texas looked very good last night in their big win over Kansas, but still have three 15+ losses on their resume. Meanwhile, while Ohio State does not quite have the quality of wins, their consistency all season, along with leading a very good Big Ten helps their cause. Now if Memphis were to drop a couple of games late, this discussion could heat up even more.

2-24 Bracket:

Here is my current bracket:
Atlanta Region:
1. Duke vs 16. Georgia Southern/Southern
8. Syracuse vs. 9. Kentucky
4. West Virginia vs. 13. San Diego State
5. Washington vs. 12. UNC-Wilmington
6. Oklahoma vs. 11. California
3. Pittsburgh vs. 14. Iona
7. Wichita State vs. 10. Arkansas
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Pacific

Oakland region:
1. Memphis vs 16. Farleigh Dickinson
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. George Mason
4. George Washington vs. 13. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
5. Georgetown vs. 12. Colorado
6. NC State vs. 11. Bradley
3. UCLA vs. 14. Winthrop
7. Creighton vs. 10. Cincinnati
2. Ohio State vs. 15. Northern Arizona

Washington D.C. region:
1. Villanova vs 16. Belmont
8. Northern Iowa vs. 9. Alabama
4. Kansas vs. 13. Kent State
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Florida State
6. Marquette vs. 11. Houston
3. Iowa vs. 14. Penn
7. Boston College vs. 10. Missouri State
2. Tennessee vs. 15. IUPUI

Minneapolis Region:
1. UConn vs 16. Albany
8. Nevada vs. 9. Bucknell
4. Illinois vs. 13. Northwestern State
5. Florida vs. 12. Western Kentucky
6. LSU vs. 11. Seton Hall
3. North Carolina vs. 14. Murray State
7. Michigan vs. 10. Arizona
2. Texas vs. 15. Delaware State

Last five teams in: Houston, Bradley, Florida State, UNC-Wilmington, Colorado
Last five teams out: UAB, Utah State, Southern Illinois, Virginia, Temple

Multiple Bid Conferences:
Big East-9
Big Ten, SEC-6
ACC, Missouri Valley-5
Big 12, Pac 10-4
Colonial, Conference USA-2

The Good, the Bad, and the Downright Ugly:

The Good:
Michigan's win over Illinois just assured them a spot in the NCAA field, alhough they were in very good shape to begin with. The Wolverines are now just playing for seed.

Arkansas came back from 18 down in the second half to get a much needed win over Alabama, and now are probably just a win away from making the Big Dance for the first time since 2001.

Virginia just vaulted themselves back into the at large discussion with their win over Boston College. Still likely two wins short after a lackluster non-conference performance, their 7 wins in the ACC are still are a remarkable overachievment.

The Bad:
Seton Hall's loss at St. John's tonight, the same Red Storm team that lost at the Garden to DePaul on Saturday, pushes the Pirates well back into the dreaded bubble mix. After their win a week ago over West Virginia had seemingly vaulted them into the field for good, surprising losses to ND at home and at St. John's have put the Pirates in a tenuous situation, especially when you consider the 53 and 42 point beatdowns administered to them by Duke and UConn.

Xavier's very slim at large hopes just left the UD Arena after a deflating loss to a bad Dayton team. Looking good on national TV against Cincy and GW will not vault the Musketeers into the Dance, and now they must repeat their amazing feat in 2004 of 4 wins in 4 days to make the Tournament.

The Downright Ugly:
Southern Illinois's loss to an atrocious Evansville team has just placed the Salukis in a real difficult situation. They now have to make a long run and probably even win the MVC Tournament to get in. Evansville has become team-non grata in the Valley offices, as their dream of getting 5 bids in the Big Dance probably just left the building.

2-21 Bracket:

The weekly bracket update here is a day late thanks to the lovely cold I have been fighting.

The Missouri Valley still has five teams in the field, but Southern Illinois's hold is paper-thin after losing at home to an off the radar Louisiana Tech team. They were the second to last team in the field, and their margin for error is gone.

Arkansas did a good job solidifying their spot in the field by knocking off Florida, and Alabama's spot is very secure after a blowout of Tennessee.

With UAB and Houston both in the field alongside Memphis, Conference USA somehow has three teams in the field despite being ranked 14th in Conference RPI. However, teams earn bids, not conferences, and UAB and Houston have done just a tad bit more than rest of the sorry group on bubble.

After getting a much needed win against Oklahoma, Colorado goes and loses at a mediocre Kansas State team, and is right back on the bubble, although they sneak in the field as of now.

Indiana, even with the wheels really falling off, still sneaks in as the last team in. Their profile is just a touch better than the final five teams out. Come back in a week, and they'll likely be out of the bracket.

Here are seeds(in order of 1-65, conference leaders in bold ):
1's: Duke, Villanova, UConn, Memphis
2's: Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, Gonzaga
3's: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Iowa, UCLA
4's: West Virginia, Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina
5's: George Washington, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Kansas
6's: Marquette, Wisconsin, Washington, Georgetown
7's: LSU, Oklahoma, Boston College, Wichita State
8's: Michigan, Creighton, George Mason, Syracuse
9's: Alabama, Nevada, Seton Hall, Arizona
10's: Bucknell, Missouri State, Cincinnati, Kentcuky
11's: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Houston
12's: Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, UAB, Indiana
13's: San Diego State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Iona, Northwestern State
14's: Akron, Murray State, Winthrop, Penn
15's: Pacific, Davidson, IUPUI, Farleigh Dickinson
16's: Delaware State, Albany, Northern Arizona

Play-In Game:
Belmont vs. Southern

Last five teams in: Colorado, Houston, Southern Illinois, UAB, Indiana
Last five teams out: Bradley, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Maryland, Florida State

2-13 bracket:

Right now, the Missouri Valley has 5 teams in my bracket. Now, Missouri State, after a win at Northern Iowa, is among the last five in, so their spot is still tenuous, but if they finish out with three wins in Valley, and a strong showing against Wisconsin-Milwaukee in Bracket Buster Saturday, they will have a good chance at earning an at large.

Houston, with strong wins out of conference against LSU and Arizona, enters my bracket, as they have gotten to 6-3 in Conference USA, and frankly, are a better option than many of the other teams at the bottom of the bracket.

Maryland, with an awful record versus the top 50 and on road and neutral sites, is currently outside my bracket, and without leading scorer Chris McCray, academically ineligible for the remainder of the season, they are in bigtime trouble.

Also, I'm throwing conference record basically out the window with Iowa State and Vanderbilt. Even though they sit at 4-6 in their respective conferences, they have still done more than a team like UAB, who does not possess a single top 50 win.

Teams in bold are the current conference leaders.

1 seeds: UConn, Duke, Memphis, Texas
2 seeds: Villanova, Ohio State, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Iowa, UCLA
4 seeds: Florida, Michigan State, Illinois, George Washington
5 seeds: North Carolina, Georgetown, LSU, Kansas
6 seeds: North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
7 seeds: Boston College, Southern Illinois, Washington, Michigan
8 seeds: Creighton, Alabama, Wichita State, Bucknell
9 seeds: Syracuse, Marquette, Indiana, Nevada
10 seeds: Arizona, California, George Mason, Seton Hall
11 seeds: Kentucky, Houston, Arkansas, Missouri State
12 seeds: Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Colorado, Western Kentucky
13 seeds: San Diego State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Akron, Northwestern State
14 seeds: Iona, Murray State, Winthrop, Penn
15 seeds: Pacific, IUPUI, Albany, Delaware State
16 seeds: Farleigh Dickinson, Northern Arizona, Belmont

Play-In Game:
Southern vs. Georgia Southern

Last five teams in: Missouri State, Arkansas, Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Colorado
Last five teams out: UAB, Temple, Maryland, Cincinnati, Florida State

Bid breakdown:
8-Big East
7-Big Ten, SEC
5-Big 12, MVC
4-ACC, Pac 10
2-Conference USA

First committee meeting, 2-13:

Tonight, we got down to serious business with our first round of preliminary ballots to gauge which teams, as of now, are certain to get in the NCAA Tournament field. The following teams received the necessary votes to be on the at large board.

Connecticut, Duke, Florida, GW, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Memphis, Mich. State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Pitt, Tennesee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, West Virginia and Wisconsin all were unanimous picks.

Boston College, Oklahoma and Wichita State also had enough votes to be on this board.

The following teams also received votes:
Creighton, Michigan and Washington all had 5 votes
Indiana had 4 votes
Kentucky and Marquette had 3 votes
Arizona, Bucknell, Cal, Colorado, Seton Hall and Southern Illinois had 2 votes
Alabama, Cincinnati and Syracuse had 1 vote each

My personal ballot was as follows:
Connecticut
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
George Washington
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
LSU
Memphis
Michigan State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Iowa
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Texas
UCLA
Villanova
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Since this ballot, which is strictly preliminary and has not no bearing on final at large board, is only teams who you feel are for sure in field, I kept mine to a smaller number of 23.

At the end of night, after discussing ballots, we had the following teams as the 1-4 seeds.
Duke, UConn, Memphis and Texas were unanimous 1 seeds
Villanova, Pitt, Gonzaga and Ohio State, just over Tennessee were on the 2 line.
Tennessee, West Virginia, UCLA and Iowa as 3 seeds, with Iowa getting the last 3 over Florida
Florida, Illinois, Michigan State and GW, which got the slight nod, over UNC and Georgetown as 4 seeds.

Bracket update, 2/6:

Arizona is really becoming a baffling case. They're well in safe zone for RPI at 17, but have a real ugly profile, sitting at just 6-5 in medicore Pac 10, and not having a single top 50 RPI win. The Wildcats did this a couple of years ago, and found their way into the field. As of now, because of the lack of quality teams, they sneak in as of now, but are firmly on the bubble currently.

Speaking of Pac 10 bubbles, Washington better wake up soon, or they will take their inflated ranking straight to the NIT. Having rival Washington State get 2 of their 3 Pac 10 wins at your expexpense is just embarassing, and Huskies are also firmly on the bubble, just sneaking their way into this weeks bracket.

A notable team nowhere to be found is Maryland, as the Terrapins were swept by UNC and NC State. Without leading scorer Chris McCray, this is a team floundering and looking at real possibility of consecutive NIT's.

Colorado has once again proven that high level competition is not their friend, getting blown in Ames. For the record, that's 3 games versus legit tourney teams, and 3 defeats by 12 or more points. At this point, 15-4 means nothing to me, and until they win a game of note, they will not be in my field.

Anyway, here are seeds(teams in bold are current conference leaders):
1's: UConn, Duke, Memphis, Texas
2's: Villanova, Michigan State, West Virginia, UCLA
3's: Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga
4's: Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU, Georgetown
5's: George Washington, North Carolina, Ohio State, NC State
6's: Indiana, Northern Iowa, Boston College, Kansas
7's: Creighton, Oklahoma, Marquette, Michigan
8's: Seton Hall, Wichita State, Kentucky, Syracuse
9's: Alabama, UAB, Iowa State, Miami-Florida
10's: Wisconsin, Bucknell, Temple, Nevada
11's: George Mason, Southern Illinois, Cincinnati, California
12's: Arizona, Washington, Arkansas, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
13's: Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Northwestern State, Manhattan
14's: Murray State, Kent State, Penn, UC Irvine
15's: Birmingham Southern, Delaware State, Lipscomb, Albany
16's: IUPUI, Farleigh Dickinson, Northern Arizona

Play-In Game:
Southern vs. Elon

Last five in:
Cincinnati, California, Arizona, Washington, Arkansas

Last five out:
Utah State, Colorado, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Missouri State

Time to get serious:

With February beginning, Selection Sunday is officially on the horizon, and the top teams all took care of business.

In likely most relevant to bracket result tonight, Southern Illinois dropped a headstratcher at home tonight to Ihndiana State. The Salukis are one team atop MVC standing who don't have margin for error after a herendous start to the season in Alaska. With tonight's loss, winning regular season title and then a couple of games in MVC tourney is a must if they want to get an at large bid.

Duke survived at BC, Texas won handily at Iowa, and Memphis won big at Tulsa, and West Virginia won at ND, as the Irish lose another heartbreaker, 71-70.

In potential trap games, Michigan won at Penn State, and Iowa won at Purdue, as two of three co-Big Ten leaders meet Saturday in Ames.

Syracuse, despite losing starting point guard Gerry McNamara, overcame Quincy Douby's unconscious effort in an overtime win over Rutgers. It was a must win for Orange, now 4-4 in powerful Big East.

Wichita State used a strong second half in avoiding a potentially disasterous loss to Evansville at Shockers home arena.

Kentucky keeps rolling, winning at Mississippi State. The Cats are now 5-2, all in SEC play, after the return of Randolph Morris.

Speaking of returns, Marquette got freshman guard Wesley Matthews back in 81-61 win over St. John's. Now at 6-3 in Big East, they continue to surprise with an exciting upcoming showdown with powerful Villanova.

LSU defeating Auburn and Bucknell continuing their perfect Patriot League at Army round out tonight's action, in a day where teams did a great job of staying on track towards hearing their name called March 12th.

End of January rundown:

Well, Creighton accomplished what figured be an impossible task in MVC, sweep Northern Iowa. While just a blip on radar screen for Panthers, this probably sewed up an at large bid for Bluejays. Dana Altman continues to have a great thing down in Omaha. Except both teams to be in the upper half of bracket come Selection Sunday.

Georgetown is on fire, although at this point, dismantling DePaul is like picking on the dumb kid at school-just a bit unfair and really just piling on. Seriously, the Hoyas continue to be a sleeper pick to win the Big East, and with their imposing front line, it's certainly not of the question.

Wisconsin looks to be joining Cincy in not having the manpower to compete with big boys at this point. A 4 in my bracket this past week, there will be a sharp fall for Badgers this week after 66-51 drubbing by Illinois, as they have proven that a lot of the good accomplished before Steimsma and Landry were declared ineligible needs to downplayed. They are 1-4 without them, with an embarassing loss to North Dakota State. Meanwhile, Bearcats won a hard fought game over pesky South Florida, but still really need a couple of big wins to ensure a tourney berth in March.

The rough season continues for Louisville and Wake Forest. A valiant effort by Rick Pitino's bunch came up a little short at Villanova, and now sit at 2-6 in Big East, with trips to Cincinnati, Syracuse, West Virginia and number one UConn left on docket, as well as home tilt with surprising former C-USA rival Marquette. After a loss in Coral Gables to resurgent Miami, 5-3 in ACC, Wake now sits at a shocking 1-7 in ACC and Skip Prosser may have moving plans to Cincinnati already in place.

Kansas dismantled Texas Tech, and the young Jayhawks have the look a team gelling at the right time as they move to 5-2 in Big 12. While still not yet locked into the field and a poor non-conference showing, Kansas has the look of a team high seeds don't want to see opposite them.

Bracket Buster match-ups, courtesy of ESPN.com:

• Bucknell at Northern Iowa
• George Mason at Wichita State
• Missouri State at Wisconsin-Milwaukee
• Louisiana Tech at Southern Illinois
• Buffalo at Iona
• Fresno State at Creighton
• Akron at Nevada
• Butler at Kent State
• Marist at Old Dominion
• Northwestern State at Utah State
• Samford at Ohio
• Albany at Virginia Commonwealth
• Northern Arizona at Western Kentucky

Z's Projecting the Field:

Well, until one of us computer wizards learns how to post an actual bracket, for now what we'll do is projecting the seeds. Kyle is finishing up his report shortly, and will hopefully post it. Here are my current thoughts on how the field in shaping up.

Road Warriors:
After not even being on my radar, Seton Hall proceeded to go to NC State and Syracuse, and emerge as a legitimate at large team. While not the flashiest squad, they have won 10 games in the Big East 2 of last 3 years, and with a star down low in Kelly Whitney, the Pirates have the ability to gain a permanent position. Forget the early season drubbing by Duke, this is a team that you cannot take lightly.

Paper Tigers:
Colorado and Air Force may spot gaudy records, but their profiles are thinner than a supermodel. Therefore, they can take those nice little records, and enjoy being the marquee teams in NIT. Air Force has yet to play a team in the RPI top 50(Washington, currently 56 is by far the best team they have played), and do not have a game against one scheduled the rest of the season. Colorado, which will have some opportunities in Big 12, currently sports 1 win vs an RPI top 50 team, the superpower known as UNC-Wilmington. And with RPI's of 47 and 49 respectively, neither is in a guaranteee position based on that.

The Great unknown:
Cincinnati boasts an at large worthy profile, but since starting 3 man Armein Kirkland went down vs UConn, they're 1-4, with three of those games being blowouts. At this point, you have to assume they are not nearly the same team without him, as an already thin team lost a key guy that they've yet to indicate they can replace. For now, they are not in my field, but it's a real tenuous situation. I can see arguments both ways on this, but other than proud effort at Xavier, and a home win over Rutgers, they have flat out stunk, with 77-58 loss to an overrated Syracuse team making clearest impression right now, enough so leave them out. If they rebound like Texas did last season without Tucker and Aldridge, they'll regain their spot in the field. If I had to put a number on it, 8-8 in Big East would be enough.

Watch Out:
Two very notable programs, Maryland and Syracuse, snuck into this week's bracket, but both are in very precarious positions. Syracuse is 1-6 vs top 50, Maryland 1-4, not to mention the Terps sterling 2-5 road/neutral record. While the ACC is definitely the easier conference to solidify themselves, Maryland's leading scorer, Chris McCray, is academically ineligible the rest of the season, so they also have to re-prove that they're a worthy NCAA Tournament team without him.

Lost opportunity:
One of last seasons top mid-major teams, Old Dominion, has really failed to build on last seasons strong showing, as they have already lost more games this regular season, 6, than they did during last year's excellent campaign, 5. While the Colonial is much stronger this year, there is no excuse for a team that returned all of its key guys to not improve on last year. With an RPI of 40, they are still in the at large discussion, but they had better curb the losing if they want to make the Big Dance without having to win an expected hard-fought CAA Tourney.

The Seeds:
1-Duke, UConn, Memphis, Villanova
2-Illinois, Texas, Michigan State, Pitt
3-UCLA, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Iowa
4-Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin
5-Ohio State, Indiana, LSU, Georgetown
6-NC State, Michigan, George Washington, Kentucky
7-Boston College, North Carolina, Washington, Marquette
8-Creighton, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wichita State
9-Seton Hall, Bucknell, Kansas, Xavier
10-Maryland, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Vanderbilt, Syracuse
11-Temple, Southern Illinois, Alabama, UAB
12-Arkansas, UAB, George Mason, Western Kentucky
13-Iona, Louisiana Tech, Akron, Northwestern State
14-Winthrop, San Diego State, Samford, Pennsylvania
15-Delaware State, IUPUI, UC Irvine, Albany
16-Lipscomb, Nortern Arizona, Central Connecticut State

Play-In Game:
Elon vs. Southern

Last five teams in:
UAB, Southern Illinois, Temple, Arkansas, Iowa State

Last five out:
Cincinnati, Colorado, Air Force, Miami-Florida, Old Dominion

Bid breakdown by conference
8-Big East
7-Big Ten, SEC
5-ACC
4-Big 12, Missouri Valley
3-Atlantic 10, Pac 10
2-Conference USA

1/24 Games Rundown:

Southern Illinois's win over Creighton tonight is a big feather in their cap, as they try to add to their at large resume. Creighton has performed very admirably after the loss of star Nate Funk against DePaul, and this loss does not damage their strong resume.

Kentucky continues to look real solid with Randolph Morris back in the fold. While many people had a good laugh when they brought in a sports psychologist, the results since then cannot be questioned, as Tubby Smith appears to have his Cats back on track.

Wake Forest's dwindling at large hopes may have taken a knockout blow, losing at home to an average Florida State team. On the same note, Winthrop's last hopes for at large bid just flew the coop, losing at home to Coastal Carolina. It will be a one way trip to NIT if they don't win the Big South tournament.

Georgetown continues to come on like gangbusters, winning at ND. This despite a terribly dumb foul that allowed Colin Falls tie the game with a second to go after hitting what appeared to be a meaningless three, and take it to overtime. However. the Hoyas proved to be resilient, and now sit at a very pretty 4-2 in Big East.

Iowa continues to strengthen its case to make it back to Big Dance, winning a key home tilt versus the Hoosiers. At 4-2 now in Big Ten, the Hawkeyes, with their sparkling RPI and a third real quality victory, would have to take a hard fall not to make the tourney. In the tough Carver-Hawkeye environment, the Hoosiers have nothing to be ashamed about in losing. However, we almost got to see the hilarity of another Mike Davis blow-up.

Finally, right as they trying to force their way into the at-large discussion, the Miami Hurricanes have now dropped two straight, getting drubbed in Charlottesville tonight, 71-51. Now at 3-3 in ACC, with a very sub-par non-conference performance, the Canes better turn it around in a hurry if they want to return to the Big Dance for first time since 2002.

1/23 game Rundown:

With Syracuse suffering another tough setback against one of the Big East's best, they're playing their way straight to 8/9 game. Other than a win at Cincy(which was Bearcats first game without starting 3 man Armein Kirkland), the Orange have falied to record any wins of serious note. Pitt, on the other hand, looked vey solid in rebounding from their first loss of year in picking up a much needed quality win for their profile. An interesting match-up looms for Panthers, as they face an overachieving Marquette squad on Saturday.

Texas continues to look strong after brief December debacle, blowing out Eddie Sutton's OK State Cowboys. The Cowboys will be lucky to hitch their horse to NIT at this point, a far cry from Pokes last two seasons.

Adam Morrison scores another 41, yet the Zags still fail to blow out an awful San Francisco squad. While previously being one the Zags biggest defenders, unless their defense drastically improves, an early round exit looms for Mark Few's crew.

Utah State grinds out a solid win in Reno, befuddling a Wolfpack squad that really looks to have regressed after an impressive early season start highlighted by a win at Phog. Stew Morrill's squad severely lacks quality wins, but still have the look of a 12/13 type team that could give quality teams a fit in the first round. However, the Aggies have a long way to go to be in serious at large discussion. Meanwhile, Wolfpack appear to be on the road to WAC Tourney Title or NIT bid unless they sharply change the course of their season soon.

Mid-Major vs Major debate:

Each year as the NCAA Tournament approaches, the debate over who should get the precious final at large spots commences. Should it be the middle of pack, .500 in conference major team, or the sparkling conference record, yet not played as strong of competition, mid-major team. Being an avid defender of mid-majors, I personally prefer having the strong mid-major. Of course, their are exceptions to this train of thought. In 2001, despite a 16-13 overall record, and 9-7 in SEC, I felt that 2001 Georgia team was indeed deserving of an at large, ahead of strong mid-major Colonial team(at that time, now they play in Atlantic 10) like Richmond. Having personally seen many of the Big East teams play, and the quality of basketball played in that league, an 8-8 team in that league most certainly deserves serious consideration for an at large bid.

Just to give an idea of the type of debate that will go on, here are two teams that as of now are fighting for one of the last large spots in the NCAA Tournament

Team A:
George Mason: 13-5, 7-2 in Colonial, 41 RPI, 1-2 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 road/neutral record

Team B:
Arkansas: 13-5, 2-3 in SEC, 61 RPI, 2-3 vs RPI top 50, 4-4 road/neutral record

Frankly, neither profile comes close to blowing you away. Not having the chance to see George Mason play yet, you have to rely on numbers to judge what type of team they have. Arkansas has looked impressive the times I've seen them, but then the question becomes, why they can't they consistent play to that level, because if they did, this discussion wouldn't be taking place right now. This is the classic debate that will always rage on as long as there's an NCAA Tournament.

Here is my bracket, updated through results of 1-22:

A few anomalies that will likely change as the season goes on:
Right now, 5 Missouri Valley teams are in my bracket. The Valley is really strong this season, but likely will be a 3-4 bid conference come Selection Sunday.

Currently, George Mason is in as an at large. The Patriots are benificiaries of fact there are simply not 34 worthy at large teams as of now, but have very little margin for error if they want to make it in as an at large. A very good RPI of 41 is about all they have to hang their head on, but that's better than alternatives

As of now, the Big 12 and Pac 10 each only have 3 worthy teams. The thing is, unless a team not currently in gets on a major roll, it may not be a big anomaly. In the case of Big 12, neither Iowa State or Oklahoma can feel safe, but would sneak into field if tourament started today.

Nevada, despite a top 50 win and an RPI of 52, receives one of the final at large bids based purely of their performances in lats two tournaments, and the fact that they have one of college basketball's best players in Nick Fazekas. To receive an at large in March, the Wolfpack better pick up a couple of quality wins, and inch that RPI up to 40 or better.

Bid Breakdown:
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 ACC
5 SEC, Missouri Valley
3 Pac 10, Big 12
2 Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Colonial, WAC

Last Five Teams In:
Nevada, George Mason, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Miami-Florida

Last Five Teams Out:
Kansas State, Air Force, Clemson, Arkansas, Alabama

Teams in Bold are the current conference leaders

Also, sorry for the slight technical glitch, as the bracket will load fine, you just have to scroll really far down on page. This will be fixed ASAP, but I just want to post my bracket to give an idea of the bracket that will be produced, hopefully in an easier to read manner very soon.

Bracket:

1-22 Bracket

PROJECTED BRACKET
	Mar 16/17	Mar 18/19	Mar 23 & 25		Mar 24 & 26	Mar 18/19	Mar 16/17
Atlanta, GA								Washington, DC
1	Duke						Connecticut	1
16	Southern						Elon	16
8	Marquette						North Carolina	8
9	UAB						Xavier	9
4	Tennessee						Washington	4
13	Western Kentucky						Manhattan	13
5	Iowa						Ohio State	5
12	Missouri State						Miami-Florida	12
2	Villanova						Illinois	2
15	Oral Roberts						Sacred Heart	15
7	George Washington						Vanderbilt	7
10	Oklahoma						Bucknell	10
3	Wisconsin						Florida	3
14	Louisiana Tech						Northwestern State	14
6	Creighton			Indianapolis			Syracuse	6
11	Nevada			Final Four			Wisconsin-Milwaukee	11
Oakland, CA				Sat Apr 1				Minneapolis, MN
1	Texas			Final			Memphis	1
16	Northern Arizona			Mon Apr 3			Play-In Winner	16
8	Iowa State						Georgetown	8
9	Wichita State						Kentucky	9
4	Indiana						Pittsburgh	4
13	Akron						Tennessee Tech	13
5	North Carolina State						Northern Iowa	5
12	Old Dominion						Winthrop	12
2	West Virginia						Michigan State	2
15	UC Irvine						Delaware State	15
7	Arizona						LSU	7
10	Michigan						Boston College	10
3	Gonzaga						UCLA	3
14	UNLV						Pennsylvania	14
6	Maryland						Cincinnati	6
11	Southern Illinois						George Mason	11
							Play-In Game
							Binghamton vs. Florida Atlantic