Selection Sunday Stumpers

As Matt posted below, the mock committee has our top 40 seeded and the bottom 5 seeded. That leaves just 20 spots to seed and we will go through and thoroughly debate the S-Curve rankings for any possible changes.

Here are some of the topics we debated this weekend...

-The final No. 1 seed

The mock committee all agrees that there are six deserving No. 1 seeds, but the prevailing thought was that Ohio State because of being the No. 1 team in the nation's No. 1 rated conference according to the RPI, has earned the nod slightly over Memphis or Texas. It was helped that they got to the Big Ten Tournament finals today, although we voted on the first four lines of the S-Curve on Friday night. However, because Ohio State beat Indiana, the committee has elected, for now, to keep them as the No. 1

-The final at-large bid

Here are the at-large bids. Currently, there are 37 teams listed but at least 3 spots open up today because of teams on our list earning an automatic bid. That will even the list down to 34 teams. There will be a 4th spot open up if Florida beats South Carolina in the SEC Championship... that's where the debate ensues. We currently have Creighton taking that final spot over Michigan, Houston and Florida State, but there is still a debate over Creighton and Michigan for the last spot. It's possible we may vote Michigan in as the final team given the injury situation and some of their losses coming less than full strength.

(* denotes playing for conference championship)
1. Duke*
2. Ohio State*
3. Texas*
4. Florida*
5. Boston College*
6. Iowa*
7. Kansas*
8. Alabama
9. Arizona
10. Arkansas
11. Bradley
12. California
13. Connecticut
14. George Washington
15. Georgetown
16. Illinois
17. Indiana
18. Kentucky
19. LSU
20. Marquette
21. Michigan State
22. North Carolina
23. North Carolina State
24. Northern Iowa
25. Oklahoma
26. Pittsburgh
27. Tennessee
28. Texas A&M
29. UAB
30. Villanova
31. Washington
32. West Virginia
33. Wichita State
34. Wisconsin

Also in (waiting on the guaranteed spots to open up)

Cincinnati
Missouri State
Seton Hall

Creighton or Michigan will get the spot if South Carolina does not upset Florida

3-11 Committee Meeting:

With it now less than 24 hours away from Selection Sunday, the committee went into full throttle tonight, rounding out the at large field, and filling a good chunk of the S Curve.

The first order of business was to fill the slots that opened on the at large board. In the initial vote, Cal and Texas A&M jumped from the nomination board into the field of 65, a sentiment echoed by all committee members.

After five more spots opened during the day, Bradley. Cincinnati, Missouri State, Seton Hall and UAB joined the at large board.

Missouri State has been a real conundrum throughout the week. Basically, it's a #19 RPI competing with the fact they are just 5-8 vs top 100 teams. In the end, the committee agreed they belonged in the field, as an 8-6 road and neutral record and 8-2 record in their last ten games overshawed mediocre mark vs top 100 teams.

With South Carolina, a team that has no hope for an at large bid, playing in the SEC Finals, the last spot in the field is currently unavailable, but should Florida prevail tomorrow, Creighton currently sits in the perilous position of last team in the field, or possibly first team out of the field. The other team in competition for that final spot appears to be Michigan, and this debate will continue on tomorrow.

Now, some changes were made to the S Curve, with the most notable being Iowa jumping up onto the 2 line at #8 on S Curve. Personally, I believe either UNC or UCLA to be more deserving of the final two seed, but my claims fell on deaf ears. On the other hand, we boldly believe Ohio State to be more deserving on the last one seed than Memphis or Texas, and I agree with this.

Here is the current S Curve, 1-16:
1. UConn
2. Duke
3. Villanova
4. Ohio State
5. Memphis
6. Texas
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. North Carolina
10. LSU
11. UCLA
12. Pitt
13. Gonzaga
14. West Virginia
15. Tennessee
16. Florida

I would have Boston College on the 4 line ahead of West Virginia, who has gone just 4-6 down the stretch, admittedly against a difficult schedule. Also, while I believe Pitt to be the better overall team, I would probably flip them and Gonzaga.

Now, I think for most part, 17-40 on the S Curve looks to be very well done.

17. Boston College
18. Kansas
19. Georgetown
20. Michigan State
21. Washington
22. Marquette
23. George Washington
24. Oklahoma
25. Nevada
26. Indiana
27. Syracuse
28. Wichita State
29. Wisconsin
30. Northern Iowa
31. Arkansas
32. Kentucky
33. NC State
34. Arizona
35. Southern Illinois
36. Alabama
37. Texas A&M
38. California
39. Bradley
40. Bucknell

We have also started seeding the bottom the bracket, 61-65.
61. Belmont
62. Albany
63. Monmouth
64. Southern
65. Monmouth

Tonight, the following teams gained automatic bids:
Xavier-Atlantic 10
Albany-America East
Syracuse-Big East
Pacific-Big West
Memphis-Conference USA
Kent State-MAC
Hampton-MEAC
San Diego State-Mountain West
UCLA-Pac Ten
Southern-SWAC
Nevada-WAC

Later today, we will meet to discuss the potential of selecting the final at large bid, and fill and make whatever changes necessary on the S Curve.

3-9 Committee Meeting:

In the first order of business, BYU, Colorado, Utah State and Vanderbilt were voted off the nomination board, eliminating them from consideration for NCAA Tournament. Of the four, only Utah State is still playing in their conference tourney, but will require the WAC auto bid to get in.

In the next order of business, Syracuse was unanimously elected in the field, as an at large spot is now guaranteed to open up from the Big Ten.

After that, the committee has started work on the S Curve, although the frightening eye injury suffered by Allen Ray will likely knock Nova down a few spots.

Current S Curve:
1. Villanova
2. UConn
3. Duke
4. Ohio State
5. Memphis
6. Texas
7. Illinois
8. UNC
9. LSU
10. Iowa
11. UCLA
12. Pitt
13. Gonzaga
14. West Virginia
15. Tennessee
16. Florida

Georgetown, Michigan State, Boston College and Kansas are leftovers from final vote.

Games to follow tomorrow(all times eastern):
A-10 Finals:
St. Joe's vs Xavier, 6 p.m.-ESPN

ACC Semifinals:
Duke vs. Wake Forest, 1:30 p.m. -ESPN
North Carolina vs. Boston College, 4 p.m.-ESPN

America East Championship:
Vermont vs. Albany, 12 p.m.-ESPN2

Big Ten Semis:
Michigan State-Iowa, 1:30 p.m.-CBS
Ohio State-Indiana, 4 p.m.-CBS

Big 12 Semis:
Texas-Texas A&M, 2 p.m.-ESPN2
Kansas-Nebraska, 4:30 p.m.-ESPN2

Big East Finals:
Syracuse-Pitt, 8 p.m.-ESPN

Big West Finals:
Pacific vs Long Beach State, 12 a.m.-ESPN

Conference USA Finals:
Memphis-UAB, 11:35 a.m.-CBS

MAC Finals:
Kent State vs. Toledo, 6:30 p.m.-ESPN2

MEAC Finals:
Delaware State vs. Hampton, 7:30 p.m.-ESPN Classic

Mountain West Finals:
San Diego State vs Wyoming, 10 p.m.-ESPN

Pac 10 Finals:
UCLA vs Cal, 6:15 p.m.-CBS

SEC Semis:
South Carolina vs. Kentucky, 1:00 p.m.
LSU vs. Florida, 3:15 p.m.

SWAC Finals:
Arkansas Pine-Bluff vs. Southern, 7:30 p.m.-ESPNU

WAC Finals:
Utah State vs. Nevada, 9 p.m eastern-ESPN2

Sunday (all times eastern):
ACC Finals:
Duke/Wake vs. BC/UNC, 1 p.m.-ESPN

Big 10 Finals:
OSU/Indiana vs. Iowa/Michigan State, 3:30 p.m.-CBS

Big 12 Finals:
Texas/Texas A&M vs. Kansas/Nebraska, 3:00 p.m.-ESPN

SEC Finals:
South Carolina/Kentucky vs. Florida/LSU, 1 p.m.-CBS

Southland Finals:
Northwestern State vs. Sam Houston, 1 p.m.-ESPN2

Square peg through a round hole

That's how I would describe the pending eight or nine spots expected to open up by way of an at-large bid.

We have all 34 at-large spots currently filled as of last night. We had one spot available a few days back when Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference automatic bid by virtue of their win over Loyola Marymount, but as the mock committee's first order of business last night, we voted unanimously to remove Cincinnati from the field - at least for now.

The mock committee determined that with the Bearcats' loss to Syracuse in the first round of the Big East Tournament on Wednesday, they were not safely in the field and we should remove them for further consideration against the rest of the nomination board.

Previously, Indiana, Bradley, Seton Hall and Alabama had been held over as the top four vote-getters from a previous ballot. So as the next step in the process, each mock committee member identified four more teams from the nomination board with the top four vote-getters joining those four in what's called a "cross-country" vote, which is essentially ranking eight (8) teams 1-8.

Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan and UAB were the four teams that received the most votes.

Before ranking these eight teams, I felt it was absolutely necessary we discuss these teams very closely. After all, we all felt that picking teams from the list at this point in the process had become extremely difficult which could only mean we had to be very choosy.

There was a lot of sentiment that Syracuse did not yet belong in the discussion. There was equal sentiment, however, that Indiana and Alabama were by far the most appealing teams remaining. Since we were all in agreement that Indiana and Alabama should fill the remaining two spots, we all decided to vote them 1-2 on this 1-8 ranking to assure their inclusion.

The ballots went as expected, and Indiana and Alabama made it safely on our at-large board with Michigan, UAB, Seton Hall and Bradley earning the right to be holdovers for the next ballot.

As it currently stands, a maximum of nine (9) more spots could open up on the at-large board. This is based on if every conference favorite wins their conference tournament this weekend, and if not, a team from our at-large board (at least in the major conferences) win it instead.

Those nine spots potentially will be filled from teams on the nomination board. Last night, with very little resistence, we voted off Charlotte, Old Dominion, Stanford, UTEP, Virginia and Western Kentucky as we determined those six teams had no shot of earning an at-large bid.

The new nomination board includes the following 20 teams left for possible at-large consideration:

Air Force
Bucknell (playing for the Patriot League Championship against Holy Cross this weekend)
BYU
California
Cincinnati
Colorado
Creighton
Florida State
George Mason
Hofstra
Houston
Maryland
St. Joseph's
San Diego State (favored to win Mountain West conference automatic bid)
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Texas A&M
UAB
Utah State
Vanderbilt

Tonight, we plan to convene to discuss these teams a little more as well as discussing seeding for the higher seeds. Our tentative plan is to begin seeding tomorrow night for the top seeds, and if the weekend games change our minds on anything we have done, we can vote to make a few changes where necessary.

3-8 Committee Meeting:

Tonight, we reconvened for first time since Sunday. With Gonzaga narrowly escaping the WCC tourney, the come off the at large board and onto the automatic board. They are joined by the following teams:

Iona-Metro Atlantic
Monmouth-Northeast
Montana-Big Sky
Oral Roberts-Mid Continent
South Alabama-Sun Belt
UNC-Wilmington-Colonial
Wisconsin-Milwaukee-Horizon

Tony Skinn may have knocked George Mason right out of the NCAA Tournament with his groin punch against a Hofstra player. The Patriots's second leading scorer will miss their first postseason game, and that will likely knock them out of the Big Dance, as their case isn't strong enough to overcome that fact.

After a loss today to Syracuse in the Big East Tourney, Cincy has come off our at large board for now. The Bearcats are just 6-10 without Armein Kirkland, but with none of those being real bad losses, and with over West Virginia since then, it appears they will sneak into the field.

Indiana and Alabama, on the other hand, join our 32 holdovers on the at large board. With both having strong conferences and overall better resumes than rest of the pack, their spots are well earned.

In our next official committee meeting Friday night, we will hopefully be able to fill a few more at large spots, and these four teams will join four others from nomination board in the next round of voting.

Bradley
Michigan
Seton Hall
UAB

Tomorrow night, we will have an unofficial discussion of bubble teams, but come Friday night, we start to put the finishing touches on the field.

Loyola Marymount almost did us a favor last night...

When the LMU player threw that little wrap-around baseline pass to a wide open Lion teammate on the block, I thought for sure Gonzaga had lost and my job had gotten much easier. Of course if you think it would have made it easier for me or the other nine mock committee members, just imagine the relief it would have created for the real 10 troopers that have millions of fans ready to critique their every move, their every misstep.

In our replicated bracket, Gonzaga is already on the at-large board. A win by the Lions over 'Zaga would have merely meant that one less spot would opened up this week for teams on the nomination board to be selected from. That would have meant a Bradley, Florida State, Air Force or Syracuse would have not made it.

With one current spot open on the at-large board now that Gonzaga has been added to the automatic bid list, at least one more team will be dancing on Sunday that isn't currently in our field. In totaling up the number of teams from the at-large board that could eventually win their automatic bid, the maximum number of spots that will open up for at-large teams is 10.

That means no more than 10 from a list of the following teams will make the tournament, and it will be even less if teams like George Washington or Nevada lose, or bubble teams or bottom feeders win the big conferences: Air Force, Alabama, Bradley, BYU, Bucknell (favored to win the automatic bid for the Patriot League anyhow), California, Charlotte, Colorado, Creighton, Florida State, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, San Diego State, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, UTEP and Utah State.

Last night, I went back and accumulated the records for our current list of 33 at-large teams and roughly 10 automatic bids and stacked up each nomination for how they have done against the field (teams that are already in) and how they have done against other teams being considered. Here were the highs and lows:

Alabama 6-5 against teams in the field (TIF) and 1-0 against teams under consideration (TUC)
Seton Hall 5-4 TIF; 1-0 TUC
Bradley 5-6 TIF; 3-1 TUC
Creighton 4-4 TIF; 1-2 TUC
Kentucky 4-8 TIF; 0-3 TUC
California 3-4 TIF; 2-1 TUC
Michigan 3-6 TIF; 1-1 TUC
Syracuse 3-8 TIF; 1-2 TUC
George Mason 2-1 TIF; 1-3 TUC
Houston 2-1 TIF; 1-2 TUC

Air Force 0-1 TIF; 1-1 TUC
Bucknell 0-3 TIF; 1-0 TUC
Florida State 1-5 TIF; 3-0 TUC
Texas A&M 1-5 TIF; 2-0 TUC
UAB 1-1 TIF; 2-2 TUC
Hofstra 1-2 TIF; 4-0 TUC

Using this criteria along with strength of schedule (SOS), records against top 50, quality wins, bad losses (outside of the top 100) as well as the average win and loss against the RPI, I proceeded to make my own bracket, which is the second to last one of the 2006 tournament season - the final one I'll produce on Sunday.

What I found was that I was having a relatively easy time picking the field until I got down to the last 5 or 6 at-large spots after the projected automatic bids had been removed from my board (this is assuming teams like Nevada and GW win their leagues).

I agree with our committee about Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Missouri State and Northern Iowa being in the field as of today, so I wound up including all 6 in my personal bracket yesterday.

But when it was all said and done, here are the teams I included and left out with a breakdown of why or why not for each one...

In

Alabama (RPI: 46) - The tide is 6-5 against TIF and 1-0 against others in consideration as mentioned above. They have played just nine (9) games against teams ranked below No. 100 in the RPI and only Duke and Connecticut have a better average of their collective wins against the RPI than does the Crimson Tide.

Bradley (34) - Although I felt the Braves would make it, and they did for me last night, it was a little closer than I expected. They were one of my last four to make the field along with Creighton, Texas A&M and Florida State. I had been thinking they would make the field ahead of Creighton, but now I don't believe that's the case. Creighton has a better record in the MVC including the conference tournament, Creighton is 3-1 against the RPI top 100 in the non-conference while Bradley is 2-1, Creighton had a tougher non-conference SOS (85) compared to Bradley's 153 and lastly, Bradley's lone top 50 road win is against Northern Iowa while Creighton has won at Northern Iowa and also at George Mason. However, the fact that Bradley is 7-6 against the top 50 and 7-3 in their last 10 games puts them in - barely, IMO.

Bucknell (51) - At one time, Bucknell was considered a safe pick even if they slipped up in the Patriot League Tournament, but now it's not such a sure thing. Their RPI has been falling like a rock in the ocean because of their conference schedule. What's worse is that their profile victory against Syracuse earlier in the season suddenly doesn't look so good. If they win their tournament, they are in anyhow. Right now they look like they are in even as an at-large bid, but then again, you have to wonder if they have enough to withstand a second bad loss outside the top 100 if they lose in their tournament.

California (59) - With wins @UCLA and then home against Washington and Arizona, a 12-6 Pac 10 record should get the Golden Bears in the field, albeit as a low seed. Their worst loss of the year against Eastern Michigan to begin the season was without star Leon Powe.

Creighton (42) - See Bradley

Florida State (56) - The Seminoles are a tough case. They have arguably the biggest win of any of the bubble teams (Duke), but little else. Their only other top 50 win was against Maryland, a team that has lost to pretty much every team they have faced ranked higher than they are. What's worse, Florida State is just 1-5 against the current mock selection committee field and has a non-conference SOS of 318 (122 overall). On the bright side, Florida State is 3-0 against other teams considered, is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they have only one loss outside the top 100 (Virginia Tech). I gave them the nod as my last team in, but I'm warming up slowly to their resume even more.

Kentucky (39) - I won't spend much time talking about the Wildcats because I think they're safe, but it's clear they are at least a better basketball team than they were in December or early January. Kentucky has no bad losses and a neutral court win against West Virginia highlights a moderately tough schedule.

Michigan (37) - The Wolverines do have three (3) wins against the RPI top 25, but all of those are at home. Although they have only one bad loss (Purdue) this season, injuries have resulted in a 4-6 finish. The committee will take those injuries into consideration and (I think) will cause them to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt. Howevever, Michigan's best win away from Crisler Arena (and only road top 100 win) was against Minnesota and they didn't distinguish themselves much in the non-conference season with their best wins coming against Butler, Miami (Fla) and Notre Dame. How much the committee gives them leeway for those injuries might tell the story on Michigan and whether they get in. With Lester Abram set to return, I tend to think they'll be given the benefit of the doubt.

Seton Hall (48) - Because of a poor finish and a combined 100-point-plus losses to Duke and Connecticut, the Pirates were left for dead a little over a week ago. However, a win against Cincinnati at home and then an upset win on the road against Pittsburgh this past week may have gotten Seton Hall in the field. They are now sitting with 5 wins against the top 50, including 3 on the road - Pittsburgh, N.C. State and Syracuse. I think they've done enough.

Texas A&M (49) - From a profile standpoint, A&M reminds me of the UAB teams the last couple of years except that they have a key victory (Texas). Of course, UAB also has a key win this year too, but more on that later. At 10-6 in the Big 12 and with the win against Texas, A&M's modest profile should get them in based on the fact they have no sub-100 losses and are 8-2 over their last 10 games. Their non-conference season wasn't stout, but there has been worse. The best part about A&M is that over half of their 7 losses came against the RPI top 50.

UAB (44) - Same story, different season. Weak schedule, no bad losses, and few key wins. Fortunately this year, they have a win against a top 5 team in Memphis. UAB should make it easily.

I'll examine the teams that I didn't include later.

First official meeting recap:

Well, things are now underway and 40 of the 65 spots in this year's field have already been filled.

In the first official ballot, the following teams received all of the eligible votes and unanimously qualified for the at large board.

Boston College, Connecticut, Duke, George Washington, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State

The next four teams received the necessary all but two of the eligible votes and made the board:

Florida, Nevada, North Carolina State, Wisconsin

After these teams were selected, another six teams were voted onto the at large in order to fill all 34 at large spots. The committee voted the following six teams onto the board.

Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Missouri State and Northern Iowa

After a strong debate on whether Missouri State belonged, the committee ultimately kept them on the board, as a motion to remove them from the board soundly failed.

Now, these six teams have earned their way into the field, captruing an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Davidson (Southern), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Pennsylvania (Ivy), Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)

Now, eight spots on the at large board project to open up at this time, although George Washington, Gonzaga and Memphis could decrease that number if they lose in their conference tournament. These spots will be filled by the following teams that currently sit on the nomination board.

Air Force, Alabama, Bradley, Bucknell, BYU, California, Charlotte, Colorado, Creighton, Florida State, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Old Dominion, Saint Joseph’s, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin-Milwaukee

As the week progresses, the at large spots that open up will be filled, and the 65 teams will be seeded accordingly. While this may be a difficult process, the committee looks forward to meeting the tough challenge at hand.