2-26 Official Committee Meeting:

With it being just one week before official business starts, the at large ballot, while still unofficial, is starting to become a better indicator of how things will go down. Here are the ballot results from tonight's meeting.

The following teams were unanimously named:
Boston College
Connecticut
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
George Washington
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa
LSU
Marquette
Memphis
Michigan
Michigan State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Texas
UCLA
Villanova
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

These teams also received enough votes to be on the at large board:
Kansas
Nevada
Wichita State

Three teams fall one vote short:
Arizona
Missouri State
Northern Iowa

The following teams also received multiple votes:
Alabama
Arkansas
Bucknell
Creighton
George Mason
Kentucky
Syracuse

One of the major points of the discussion were two of the at large candidates from the Colonial, UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra. While some were in the camp that Hofstra should likely be in because of a 38 RPI, their SOS of 157 really damaged their cause in other's eyes, myself included. A debate ensued over the New RPI, which clearly favors the mid-majors because of the emphasis on road wins, and some committee members believe that their RPI's are inflated, especially the two Colonial teams.

It was widely believed that Indiana greatly helped their cause with today's win over Michigan State. Indiana would likely now be part of the Field of 65, but face a no-win situation at rival Purdue this week.

With the 1 seeds barring unforeseen circumstances being Duke, UConn, Villanova and Memphis, a debate over the top seed emerged. The two main candidates, who have very similar profiles, are Texas and Ohio State. Texas looked very good last night in their big win over Kansas, but still have three 15+ losses on their resume. Meanwhile, while Ohio State does not quite have the quality of wins, their consistency all season, along with leading a very good Big Ten helps their cause. Now if Memphis were to drop a couple of games late, this discussion could heat up even more.

2-24 Bracket:

Here is my current bracket:
Atlanta Region:
1. Duke vs 16. Georgia Southern/Southern
8. Syracuse vs. 9. Kentucky
4. West Virginia vs. 13. San Diego State
5. Washington vs. 12. UNC-Wilmington
6. Oklahoma vs. 11. California
3. Pittsburgh vs. 14. Iona
7. Wichita State vs. 10. Arkansas
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Pacific

Oakland region:
1. Memphis vs 16. Farleigh Dickinson
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. George Mason
4. George Washington vs. 13. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
5. Georgetown vs. 12. Colorado
6. NC State vs. 11. Bradley
3. UCLA vs. 14. Winthrop
7. Creighton vs. 10. Cincinnati
2. Ohio State vs. 15. Northern Arizona

Washington D.C. region:
1. Villanova vs 16. Belmont
8. Northern Iowa vs. 9. Alabama
4. Kansas vs. 13. Kent State
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Florida State
6. Marquette vs. 11. Houston
3. Iowa vs. 14. Penn
7. Boston College vs. 10. Missouri State
2. Tennessee vs. 15. IUPUI

Minneapolis Region:
1. UConn vs 16. Albany
8. Nevada vs. 9. Bucknell
4. Illinois vs. 13. Northwestern State
5. Florida vs. 12. Western Kentucky
6. LSU vs. 11. Seton Hall
3. North Carolina vs. 14. Murray State
7. Michigan vs. 10. Arizona
2. Texas vs. 15. Delaware State

Last five teams in: Houston, Bradley, Florida State, UNC-Wilmington, Colorado
Last five teams out: UAB, Utah State, Southern Illinois, Virginia, Temple

Multiple Bid Conferences:
Big East-9
Big Ten, SEC-6
ACC, Missouri Valley-5
Big 12, Pac 10-4
Colonial, Conference USA-2

The Good, the Bad, and the Downright Ugly:

The Good:
Michigan's win over Illinois just assured them a spot in the NCAA field, alhough they were in very good shape to begin with. The Wolverines are now just playing for seed.

Arkansas came back from 18 down in the second half to get a much needed win over Alabama, and now are probably just a win away from making the Big Dance for the first time since 2001.

Virginia just vaulted themselves back into the at large discussion with their win over Boston College. Still likely two wins short after a lackluster non-conference performance, their 7 wins in the ACC are still are a remarkable overachievment.

The Bad:
Seton Hall's loss at St. John's tonight, the same Red Storm team that lost at the Garden to DePaul on Saturday, pushes the Pirates well back into the dreaded bubble mix. After their win a week ago over West Virginia had seemingly vaulted them into the field for good, surprising losses to ND at home and at St. John's have put the Pirates in a tenuous situation, especially when you consider the 53 and 42 point beatdowns administered to them by Duke and UConn.

Xavier's very slim at large hopes just left the UD Arena after a deflating loss to a bad Dayton team. Looking good on national TV against Cincy and GW will not vault the Musketeers into the Dance, and now they must repeat their amazing feat in 2004 of 4 wins in 4 days to make the Tournament.

The Downright Ugly:
Southern Illinois's loss to an atrocious Evansville team has just placed the Salukis in a real difficult situation. They now have to make a long run and probably even win the MVC Tournament to get in. Evansville has become team-non grata in the Valley offices, as their dream of getting 5 bids in the Big Dance probably just left the building.

2-21 Bracket:

The weekly bracket update here is a day late thanks to the lovely cold I have been fighting.

The Missouri Valley still has five teams in the field, but Southern Illinois's hold is paper-thin after losing at home to an off the radar Louisiana Tech team. They were the second to last team in the field, and their margin for error is gone.

Arkansas did a good job solidifying their spot in the field by knocking off Florida, and Alabama's spot is very secure after a blowout of Tennessee.

With UAB and Houston both in the field alongside Memphis, Conference USA somehow has three teams in the field despite being ranked 14th in Conference RPI. However, teams earn bids, not conferences, and UAB and Houston have done just a tad bit more than rest of the sorry group on bubble.

After getting a much needed win against Oklahoma, Colorado goes and loses at a mediocre Kansas State team, and is right back on the bubble, although they sneak in the field as of now.

Indiana, even with the wheels really falling off, still sneaks in as the last team in. Their profile is just a touch better than the final five teams out. Come back in a week, and they'll likely be out of the bracket.

Here are seeds(in order of 1-65, conference leaders in bold ):
1's: Duke, Villanova, UConn, Memphis
2's: Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, Gonzaga
3's: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Iowa, UCLA
4's: West Virginia, Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina
5's: George Washington, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Kansas
6's: Marquette, Wisconsin, Washington, Georgetown
7's: LSU, Oklahoma, Boston College, Wichita State
8's: Michigan, Creighton, George Mason, Syracuse
9's: Alabama, Nevada, Seton Hall, Arizona
10's: Bucknell, Missouri State, Cincinnati, Kentcuky
11's: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Houston
12's: Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, UAB, Indiana
13's: San Diego State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Iona, Northwestern State
14's: Akron, Murray State, Winthrop, Penn
15's: Pacific, Davidson, IUPUI, Farleigh Dickinson
16's: Delaware State, Albany, Northern Arizona

Play-In Game:
Belmont vs. Southern

Last five teams in: Colorado, Houston, Southern Illinois, UAB, Indiana
Last five teams out: Bradley, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Maryland, Florida State

2-13 bracket:

Right now, the Missouri Valley has 5 teams in my bracket. Now, Missouri State, after a win at Northern Iowa, is among the last five in, so their spot is still tenuous, but if they finish out with three wins in Valley, and a strong showing against Wisconsin-Milwaukee in Bracket Buster Saturday, they will have a good chance at earning an at large.

Houston, with strong wins out of conference against LSU and Arizona, enters my bracket, as they have gotten to 6-3 in Conference USA, and frankly, are a better option than many of the other teams at the bottom of the bracket.

Maryland, with an awful record versus the top 50 and on road and neutral sites, is currently outside my bracket, and without leading scorer Chris McCray, academically ineligible for the remainder of the season, they are in bigtime trouble.

Also, I'm throwing conference record basically out the window with Iowa State and Vanderbilt. Even though they sit at 4-6 in their respective conferences, they have still done more than a team like UAB, who does not possess a single top 50 win.

Teams in bold are the current conference leaders.

1 seeds: UConn, Duke, Memphis, Texas
2 seeds: Villanova, Ohio State, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Iowa, UCLA
4 seeds: Florida, Michigan State, Illinois, George Washington
5 seeds: North Carolina, Georgetown, LSU, Kansas
6 seeds: North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
7 seeds: Boston College, Southern Illinois, Washington, Michigan
8 seeds: Creighton, Alabama, Wichita State, Bucknell
9 seeds: Syracuse, Marquette, Indiana, Nevada
10 seeds: Arizona, California, George Mason, Seton Hall
11 seeds: Kentucky, Houston, Arkansas, Missouri State
12 seeds: Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Colorado, Western Kentucky
13 seeds: San Diego State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Akron, Northwestern State
14 seeds: Iona, Murray State, Winthrop, Penn
15 seeds: Pacific, IUPUI, Albany, Delaware State
16 seeds: Farleigh Dickinson, Northern Arizona, Belmont

Play-In Game:
Southern vs. Georgia Southern

Last five teams in: Missouri State, Arkansas, Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Colorado
Last five teams out: UAB, Temple, Maryland, Cincinnati, Florida State

Bid breakdown:
8-Big East
7-Big Ten, SEC
5-Big 12, MVC
4-ACC, Pac 10
2-Conference USA

First committee meeting, 2-13:

Tonight, we got down to serious business with our first round of preliminary ballots to gauge which teams, as of now, are certain to get in the NCAA Tournament field. The following teams received the necessary votes to be on the at large board.

Connecticut, Duke, Florida, GW, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Memphis, Mich. State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Pitt, Tennesee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, West Virginia and Wisconsin all were unanimous picks.

Boston College, Oklahoma and Wichita State also had enough votes to be on this board.

The following teams also received votes:
Creighton, Michigan and Washington all had 5 votes
Indiana had 4 votes
Kentucky and Marquette had 3 votes
Arizona, Bucknell, Cal, Colorado, Seton Hall and Southern Illinois had 2 votes
Alabama, Cincinnati and Syracuse had 1 vote each

My personal ballot was as follows:
Connecticut
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
George Washington
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
LSU
Memphis
Michigan State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Iowa
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Texas
UCLA
Villanova
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Since this ballot, which is strictly preliminary and has not no bearing on final at large board, is only teams who you feel are for sure in field, I kept mine to a smaller number of 23.

At the end of night, after discussing ballots, we had the following teams as the 1-4 seeds.
Duke, UConn, Memphis and Texas were unanimous 1 seeds
Villanova, Pitt, Gonzaga and Ohio State, just over Tennessee were on the 2 line.
Tennessee, West Virginia, UCLA and Iowa as 3 seeds, with Iowa getting the last 3 over Florida
Florida, Illinois, Michigan State and GW, which got the slight nod, over UNC and Georgetown as 4 seeds.

Bracket update, 2/6:

Arizona is really becoming a baffling case. They're well in safe zone for RPI at 17, but have a real ugly profile, sitting at just 6-5 in medicore Pac 10, and not having a single top 50 RPI win. The Wildcats did this a couple of years ago, and found their way into the field. As of now, because of the lack of quality teams, they sneak in as of now, but are firmly on the bubble currently.

Speaking of Pac 10 bubbles, Washington better wake up soon, or they will take their inflated ranking straight to the NIT. Having rival Washington State get 2 of their 3 Pac 10 wins at your expexpense is just embarassing, and Huskies are also firmly on the bubble, just sneaking their way into this weeks bracket.

A notable team nowhere to be found is Maryland, as the Terrapins were swept by UNC and NC State. Without leading scorer Chris McCray, this is a team floundering and looking at real possibility of consecutive NIT's.

Colorado has once again proven that high level competition is not their friend, getting blown in Ames. For the record, that's 3 games versus legit tourney teams, and 3 defeats by 12 or more points. At this point, 15-4 means nothing to me, and until they win a game of note, they will not be in my field.

Anyway, here are seeds(teams in bold are current conference leaders):
1's: UConn, Duke, Memphis, Texas
2's: Villanova, Michigan State, West Virginia, UCLA
3's: Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga
4's: Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU, Georgetown
5's: George Washington, North Carolina, Ohio State, NC State
6's: Indiana, Northern Iowa, Boston College, Kansas
7's: Creighton, Oklahoma, Marquette, Michigan
8's: Seton Hall, Wichita State, Kentucky, Syracuse
9's: Alabama, UAB, Iowa State, Miami-Florida
10's: Wisconsin, Bucknell, Temple, Nevada
11's: George Mason, Southern Illinois, Cincinnati, California
12's: Arizona, Washington, Arkansas, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
13's: Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Northwestern State, Manhattan
14's: Murray State, Kent State, Penn, UC Irvine
15's: Birmingham Southern, Delaware State, Lipscomb, Albany
16's: IUPUI, Farleigh Dickinson, Northern Arizona

Play-In Game:
Southern vs. Elon

Last five in:
Cincinnati, California, Arizona, Washington, Arkansas

Last five out:
Utah State, Colorado, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Missouri State

Time to get serious:

With February beginning, Selection Sunday is officially on the horizon, and the top teams all took care of business.

In likely most relevant to bracket result tonight, Southern Illinois dropped a headstratcher at home tonight to Ihndiana State. The Salukis are one team atop MVC standing who don't have margin for error after a herendous start to the season in Alaska. With tonight's loss, winning regular season title and then a couple of games in MVC tourney is a must if they want to get an at large bid.

Duke survived at BC, Texas won handily at Iowa, and Memphis won big at Tulsa, and West Virginia won at ND, as the Irish lose another heartbreaker, 71-70.

In potential trap games, Michigan won at Penn State, and Iowa won at Purdue, as two of three co-Big Ten leaders meet Saturday in Ames.

Syracuse, despite losing starting point guard Gerry McNamara, overcame Quincy Douby's unconscious effort in an overtime win over Rutgers. It was a must win for Orange, now 4-4 in powerful Big East.

Wichita State used a strong second half in avoiding a potentially disasterous loss to Evansville at Shockers home arena.

Kentucky keeps rolling, winning at Mississippi State. The Cats are now 5-2, all in SEC play, after the return of Randolph Morris.

Speaking of returns, Marquette got freshman guard Wesley Matthews back in 81-61 win over St. John's. Now at 6-3 in Big East, they continue to surprise with an exciting upcoming showdown with powerful Villanova.

LSU defeating Auburn and Bucknell continuing their perfect Patriot League at Army round out tonight's action, in a day where teams did a great job of staying on track towards hearing their name called March 12th.

End of January rundown:

Well, Creighton accomplished what figured be an impossible task in MVC, sweep Northern Iowa. While just a blip on radar screen for Panthers, this probably sewed up an at large bid for Bluejays. Dana Altman continues to have a great thing down in Omaha. Except both teams to be in the upper half of bracket come Selection Sunday.

Georgetown is on fire, although at this point, dismantling DePaul is like picking on the dumb kid at school-just a bit unfair and really just piling on. Seriously, the Hoyas continue to be a sleeper pick to win the Big East, and with their imposing front line, it's certainly not of the question.

Wisconsin looks to be joining Cincy in not having the manpower to compete with big boys at this point. A 4 in my bracket this past week, there will be a sharp fall for Badgers this week after 66-51 drubbing by Illinois, as they have proven that a lot of the good accomplished before Steimsma and Landry were declared ineligible needs to downplayed. They are 1-4 without them, with an embarassing loss to North Dakota State. Meanwhile, Bearcats won a hard fought game over pesky South Florida, but still really need a couple of big wins to ensure a tourney berth in March.

The rough season continues for Louisville and Wake Forest. A valiant effort by Rick Pitino's bunch came up a little short at Villanova, and now sit at 2-6 in Big East, with trips to Cincinnati, Syracuse, West Virginia and number one UConn left on docket, as well as home tilt with surprising former C-USA rival Marquette. After a loss in Coral Gables to resurgent Miami, 5-3 in ACC, Wake now sits at a shocking 1-7 in ACC and Skip Prosser may have moving plans to Cincinnati already in place.

Kansas dismantled Texas Tech, and the young Jayhawks have the look a team gelling at the right time as they move to 5-2 in Big 12. While still not yet locked into the field and a poor non-conference showing, Kansas has the look of a team high seeds don't want to see opposite them.