Bracket Buster match-ups, courtesy of ESPN.com:
• Bucknell at Northern Iowa
• George Mason at Wichita State
• Missouri State at Wisconsin-Milwaukee
• Louisiana Tech at Southern Illinois
• Buffalo at Iona
• Fresno State at Creighton
• Akron at Nevada
• Butler at Kent State
• Marist at Old Dominion
• Northwestern State at Utah State
• Samford at Ohio
• Albany at Virginia Commonwealth
• Northern Arizona at Western Kentucky
Monday, January 30, 2006
Z's Projecting the Field:
Well, until one of us computer wizards learns how to post an actual bracket, for now what we'll do is projecting the seeds. Kyle is finishing up his report shortly, and will hopefully post it. Here are my current thoughts on how the field in shaping up.
Road Warriors:
After not even being on my radar, Seton Hall proceeded to go to NC State and Syracuse, and emerge as a legitimate at large team. While not the flashiest squad, they have won 10 games in the Big East 2 of last 3 years, and with a star down low in Kelly Whitney, the Pirates have the ability to gain a permanent position. Forget the early season drubbing by Duke, this is a team that you cannot take lightly.
Paper Tigers:
Colorado and Air Force may spot gaudy records, but their profiles are thinner than a supermodel. Therefore, they can take those nice little records, and enjoy being the marquee teams in NIT. Air Force has yet to play a team in the RPI top 50(Washington, currently 56 is by far the best team they have played), and do not have a game against one scheduled the rest of the season. Colorado, which will have some opportunities in Big 12, currently sports 1 win vs an RPI top 50 team, the superpower known as UNC-Wilmington. And with RPI's of 47 and 49 respectively, neither is in a guaranteee position based on that.
The Great unknown:
Cincinnati boasts an at large worthy profile, but since starting 3 man Armein Kirkland went down vs UConn, they're 1-4, with three of those games being blowouts. At this point, you have to assume they are not nearly the same team without him, as an already thin team lost a key guy that they've yet to indicate they can replace. For now, they are not in my field, but it's a real tenuous situation. I can see arguments both ways on this, but other than proud effort at Xavier, and a home win over Rutgers, they have flat out stunk, with 77-58 loss to an overrated Syracuse team making clearest impression right now, enough so leave them out. If they rebound like Texas did last season without Tucker and Aldridge, they'll regain their spot in the field. If I had to put a number on it, 8-8 in Big East would be enough.
Watch Out:
Two very notable programs, Maryland and Syracuse, snuck into this week's bracket, but both are in very precarious positions. Syracuse is 1-6 vs top 50, Maryland 1-4, not to mention the Terps sterling 2-5 road/neutral record. While the ACC is definitely the easier conference to solidify themselves, Maryland's leading scorer, Chris McCray, is academically ineligible the rest of the season, so they also have to re-prove that they're a worthy NCAA Tournament team without him.
Lost opportunity:
One of last seasons top mid-major teams, Old Dominion, has really failed to build on last seasons strong showing, as they have already lost more games this regular season, 6, than they did during last year's excellent campaign, 5. While the Colonial is much stronger this year, there is no excuse for a team that returned all of its key guys to not improve on last year. With an RPI of 40, they are still in the at large discussion, but they had better curb the losing if they want to make the Big Dance without having to win an expected hard-fought CAA Tourney.
The Seeds:
1-Duke, UConn, Memphis, Villanova
2-Illinois, Texas, Michigan State, Pitt
3-UCLA, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Iowa
4-Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin
5-Ohio State, Indiana, LSU, Georgetown
6-NC State, Michigan, George Washington, Kentucky
7-Boston College, North Carolina, Washington, Marquette
8-Creighton, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wichita State
9-Seton Hall, Bucknell, Kansas, Xavier
10-Maryland, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Vanderbilt, Syracuse
11-Temple, Southern Illinois, Alabama, UAB
12-Arkansas, UAB, George Mason, Western Kentucky
13-Iona, Louisiana Tech, Akron, Northwestern State
14-Winthrop, San Diego State, Samford, Pennsylvania
15-Delaware State, IUPUI, UC Irvine, Albany
16-Lipscomb, Nortern Arizona, Central Connecticut State
Play-In Game:
Elon vs. Southern
Last five teams in:
UAB, Southern Illinois, Temple, Arkansas, Iowa State
Last five out:
Cincinnati, Colorado, Air Force, Miami-Florida, Old Dominion
Bid breakdown by conference
8-Big East
7-Big Ten, SEC
5-ACC
4-Big 12, Missouri Valley
3-Atlantic 10, Pac 10
2-Conference USA
Well, until one of us computer wizards learns how to post an actual bracket, for now what we'll do is projecting the seeds. Kyle is finishing up his report shortly, and will hopefully post it. Here are my current thoughts on how the field in shaping up.
Road Warriors:
After not even being on my radar, Seton Hall proceeded to go to NC State and Syracuse, and emerge as a legitimate at large team. While not the flashiest squad, they have won 10 games in the Big East 2 of last 3 years, and with a star down low in Kelly Whitney, the Pirates have the ability to gain a permanent position. Forget the early season drubbing by Duke, this is a team that you cannot take lightly.
Paper Tigers:
Colorado and Air Force may spot gaudy records, but their profiles are thinner than a supermodel. Therefore, they can take those nice little records, and enjoy being the marquee teams in NIT. Air Force has yet to play a team in the RPI top 50(Washington, currently 56 is by far the best team they have played), and do not have a game against one scheduled the rest of the season. Colorado, which will have some opportunities in Big 12, currently sports 1 win vs an RPI top 50 team, the superpower known as UNC-Wilmington. And with RPI's of 47 and 49 respectively, neither is in a guaranteee position based on that.
The Great unknown:
Cincinnati boasts an at large worthy profile, but since starting 3 man Armein Kirkland went down vs UConn, they're 1-4, with three of those games being blowouts. At this point, you have to assume they are not nearly the same team without him, as an already thin team lost a key guy that they've yet to indicate they can replace. For now, they are not in my field, but it's a real tenuous situation. I can see arguments both ways on this, but other than proud effort at Xavier, and a home win over Rutgers, they have flat out stunk, with 77-58 loss to an overrated Syracuse team making clearest impression right now, enough so leave them out. If they rebound like Texas did last season without Tucker and Aldridge, they'll regain their spot in the field. If I had to put a number on it, 8-8 in Big East would be enough.
Watch Out:
Two very notable programs, Maryland and Syracuse, snuck into this week's bracket, but both are in very precarious positions. Syracuse is 1-6 vs top 50, Maryland 1-4, not to mention the Terps sterling 2-5 road/neutral record. While the ACC is definitely the easier conference to solidify themselves, Maryland's leading scorer, Chris McCray, is academically ineligible the rest of the season, so they also have to re-prove that they're a worthy NCAA Tournament team without him.
Lost opportunity:
One of last seasons top mid-major teams, Old Dominion, has really failed to build on last seasons strong showing, as they have already lost more games this regular season, 6, than they did during last year's excellent campaign, 5. While the Colonial is much stronger this year, there is no excuse for a team that returned all of its key guys to not improve on last year. With an RPI of 40, they are still in the at large discussion, but they had better curb the losing if they want to make the Big Dance without having to win an expected hard-fought CAA Tourney.
The Seeds:
1-Duke, UConn, Memphis, Villanova
2-Illinois, Texas, Michigan State, Pitt
3-UCLA, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Iowa
4-Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin
5-Ohio State, Indiana, LSU, Georgetown
6-NC State, Michigan, George Washington, Kentucky
7-Boston College, North Carolina, Washington, Marquette
8-Creighton, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wichita State
9-Seton Hall, Bucknell, Kansas, Xavier
10-Maryland, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Vanderbilt, Syracuse
11-Temple, Southern Illinois, Alabama, UAB
12-Arkansas, UAB, George Mason, Western Kentucky
13-Iona, Louisiana Tech, Akron, Northwestern State
14-Winthrop, San Diego State, Samford, Pennsylvania
15-Delaware State, IUPUI, UC Irvine, Albany
16-Lipscomb, Nortern Arizona, Central Connecticut State
Play-In Game:
Elon vs. Southern
Last five teams in:
UAB, Southern Illinois, Temple, Arkansas, Iowa State
Last five out:
Cincinnati, Colorado, Air Force, Miami-Florida, Old Dominion
Bid breakdown by conference
8-Big East
7-Big Ten, SEC
5-ACC
4-Big 12, Missouri Valley
3-Atlantic 10, Pac 10
2-Conference USA
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
1/24 Games Rundown:
Southern Illinois's win over Creighton tonight is a big feather in their cap, as they try to add to their at large resume. Creighton has performed very admirably after the loss of star Nate Funk against DePaul, and this loss does not damage their strong resume.
Kentucky continues to look real solid with Randolph Morris back in the fold. While many people had a good laugh when they brought in a sports psychologist, the results since then cannot be questioned, as Tubby Smith appears to have his Cats back on track.
Wake Forest's dwindling at large hopes may have taken a knockout blow, losing at home to an average Florida State team. On the same note, Winthrop's last hopes for at large bid just flew the coop, losing at home to Coastal Carolina. It will be a one way trip to NIT if they don't win the Big South tournament.
Georgetown continues to come on like gangbusters, winning at ND. This despite a terribly dumb foul that allowed Colin Falls tie the game with a second to go after hitting what appeared to be a meaningless three, and take it to overtime. However. the Hoyas proved to be resilient, and now sit at a very pretty 4-2 in Big East.
Iowa continues to strengthen its case to make it back to Big Dance, winning a key home tilt versus the Hoosiers. At 4-2 now in Big Ten, the Hawkeyes, with their sparkling RPI and a third real quality victory, would have to take a hard fall not to make the tourney. In the tough Carver-Hawkeye environment, the Hoosiers have nothing to be ashamed about in losing. However, we almost got to see the hilarity of another Mike Davis blow-up.
Finally, right as they trying to force their way into the at-large discussion, the Miami Hurricanes have now dropped two straight, getting drubbed in Charlottesville tonight, 71-51. Now at 3-3 in ACC, with a very sub-par non-conference performance, the Canes better turn it around in a hurry if they want to return to the Big Dance for first time since 2002.
Southern Illinois's win over Creighton tonight is a big feather in their cap, as they try to add to their at large resume. Creighton has performed very admirably after the loss of star Nate Funk against DePaul, and this loss does not damage their strong resume.
Kentucky continues to look real solid with Randolph Morris back in the fold. While many people had a good laugh when they brought in a sports psychologist, the results since then cannot be questioned, as Tubby Smith appears to have his Cats back on track.
Wake Forest's dwindling at large hopes may have taken a knockout blow, losing at home to an average Florida State team. On the same note, Winthrop's last hopes for at large bid just flew the coop, losing at home to Coastal Carolina. It will be a one way trip to NIT if they don't win the Big South tournament.
Georgetown continues to come on like gangbusters, winning at ND. This despite a terribly dumb foul that allowed Colin Falls tie the game with a second to go after hitting what appeared to be a meaningless three, and take it to overtime. However. the Hoyas proved to be resilient, and now sit at a very pretty 4-2 in Big East.
Iowa continues to strengthen its case to make it back to Big Dance, winning a key home tilt versus the Hoosiers. At 4-2 now in Big Ten, the Hawkeyes, with their sparkling RPI and a third real quality victory, would have to take a hard fall not to make the tourney. In the tough Carver-Hawkeye environment, the Hoosiers have nothing to be ashamed about in losing. However, we almost got to see the hilarity of another Mike Davis blow-up.
Finally, right as they trying to force their way into the at-large discussion, the Miami Hurricanes have now dropped two straight, getting drubbed in Charlottesville tonight, 71-51. Now at 3-3 in ACC, with a very sub-par non-conference performance, the Canes better turn it around in a hurry if they want to return to the Big Dance for first time since 2002.
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
1/23 game Rundown:
With Syracuse suffering another tough setback against one of the Big East's best, they're playing their way straight to 8/9 game. Other than a win at Cincy(which was Bearcats first game without starting 3 man Armein Kirkland), the Orange have falied to record any wins of serious note. Pitt, on the other hand, looked vey solid in rebounding from their first loss of year in picking up a much needed quality win for their profile. An interesting match-up looms for Panthers, as they face an overachieving Marquette squad on Saturday.
Texas continues to look strong after brief December debacle, blowing out Eddie Sutton's OK State Cowboys. The Cowboys will be lucky to hitch their horse to NIT at this point, a far cry from Pokes last two seasons.
Adam Morrison scores another 41, yet the Zags still fail to blow out an awful San Francisco squad. While previously being one the Zags biggest defenders, unless their defense drastically improves, an early round exit looms for Mark Few's crew.
Utah State grinds out a solid win in Reno, befuddling a Wolfpack squad that really looks to have regressed after an impressive early season start highlighted by a win at Phog. Stew Morrill's squad severely lacks quality wins, but still have the look of a 12/13 type team that could give quality teams a fit in the first round. However, the Aggies have a long way to go to be in serious at large discussion. Meanwhile, Wolfpack appear to be on the road to WAC Tourney Title or NIT bid unless they sharply change the course of their season soon.
With Syracuse suffering another tough setback against one of the Big East's best, they're playing their way straight to 8/9 game. Other than a win at Cincy(which was Bearcats first game without starting 3 man Armein Kirkland), the Orange have falied to record any wins of serious note. Pitt, on the other hand, looked vey solid in rebounding from their first loss of year in picking up a much needed quality win for their profile. An interesting match-up looms for Panthers, as they face an overachieving Marquette squad on Saturday.
Texas continues to look strong after brief December debacle, blowing out Eddie Sutton's OK State Cowboys. The Cowboys will be lucky to hitch their horse to NIT at this point, a far cry from Pokes last two seasons.
Adam Morrison scores another 41, yet the Zags still fail to blow out an awful San Francisco squad. While previously being one the Zags biggest defenders, unless their defense drastically improves, an early round exit looms for Mark Few's crew.
Utah State grinds out a solid win in Reno, befuddling a Wolfpack squad that really looks to have regressed after an impressive early season start highlighted by a win at Phog. Stew Morrill's squad severely lacks quality wins, but still have the look of a 12/13 type team that could give quality teams a fit in the first round. However, the Aggies have a long way to go to be in serious at large discussion. Meanwhile, Wolfpack appear to be on the road to WAC Tourney Title or NIT bid unless they sharply change the course of their season soon.
Monday, January 23, 2006
Mid-Major vs Major debate:
Each year as the NCAA Tournament approaches, the debate over who should get the precious final at large spots commences. Should it be the middle of pack, .500 in conference major team, or the sparkling conference record, yet not played as strong of competition, mid-major team. Being an avid defender of mid-majors, I personally prefer having the strong mid-major. Of course, their are exceptions to this train of thought. In 2001, despite a 16-13 overall record, and 9-7 in SEC, I felt that 2001 Georgia team was indeed deserving of an at large, ahead of strong mid-major Colonial team(at that time, now they play in Atlantic 10) like Richmond. Having personally seen many of the Big East teams play, and the quality of basketball played in that league, an 8-8 team in that league most certainly deserves serious consideration for an at large bid.
Just to give an idea of the type of debate that will go on, here are two teams that as of now are fighting for one of the last large spots in the NCAA Tournament
Team A:
George Mason: 13-5, 7-2 in Colonial, 41 RPI, 1-2 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 road/neutral record
Team B:
Arkansas: 13-5, 2-3 in SEC, 61 RPI, 2-3 vs RPI top 50, 4-4 road/neutral record
Frankly, neither profile comes close to blowing you away. Not having the chance to see George Mason play yet, you have to rely on numbers to judge what type of team they have. Arkansas has looked impressive the times I've seen them, but then the question becomes, why they can't they consistent play to that level, because if they did, this discussion wouldn't be taking place right now. This is the classic debate that will always rage on as long as there's an NCAA Tournament.
Each year as the NCAA Tournament approaches, the debate over who should get the precious final at large spots commences. Should it be the middle of pack, .500 in conference major team, or the sparkling conference record, yet not played as strong of competition, mid-major team. Being an avid defender of mid-majors, I personally prefer having the strong mid-major. Of course, their are exceptions to this train of thought. In 2001, despite a 16-13 overall record, and 9-7 in SEC, I felt that 2001 Georgia team was indeed deserving of an at large, ahead of strong mid-major Colonial team(at that time, now they play in Atlantic 10) like Richmond. Having personally seen many of the Big East teams play, and the quality of basketball played in that league, an 8-8 team in that league most certainly deserves serious consideration for an at large bid.
Just to give an idea of the type of debate that will go on, here are two teams that as of now are fighting for one of the last large spots in the NCAA Tournament
Team A:
George Mason: 13-5, 7-2 in Colonial, 41 RPI, 1-2 vs RPI top 50, 7-3 road/neutral record
Team B:
Arkansas: 13-5, 2-3 in SEC, 61 RPI, 2-3 vs RPI top 50, 4-4 road/neutral record
Frankly, neither profile comes close to blowing you away. Not having the chance to see George Mason play yet, you have to rely on numbers to judge what type of team they have. Arkansas has looked impressive the times I've seen them, but then the question becomes, why they can't they consistent play to that level, because if they did, this discussion wouldn't be taking place right now. This is the classic debate that will always rage on as long as there's an NCAA Tournament.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Here is my bracket, updated through results of 1-22:
A few anomalies that will likely change as the season goes on:
Right now, 5 Missouri Valley teams are in my bracket. The Valley is really strong this season, but likely will be a 3-4 bid conference come Selection Sunday.
Currently, George Mason is in as an at large. The Patriots are benificiaries of fact there are simply not 34 worthy at large teams as of now, but have very little margin for error if they want to make it in as an at large. A very good RPI of 41 is about all they have to hang their head on, but that's better than alternatives
As of now, the Big 12 and Pac 10 each only have 3 worthy teams. The thing is, unless a team not currently in gets on a major roll, it may not be a big anomaly. In the case of Big 12, neither Iowa State or Oklahoma can feel safe, but would sneak into field if tourament started today.
Nevada, despite a top 50 win and an RPI of 52, receives one of the final at large bids based purely of their performances in lats two tournaments, and the fact that they have one of college basketball's best players in Nick Fazekas. To receive an at large in March, the Wolfpack better pick up a couple of quality wins, and inch that RPI up to 40 or better.
Bid Breakdown:
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 ACC
5 SEC, Missouri Valley
3 Pac 10, Big 12
2 Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Colonial, WAC
Last Five Teams In:
Nevada, George Mason, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Miami-Florida
Last Five Teams Out:
Kansas State, Air Force, Clemson, Arkansas, Alabama
Teams in Bold are the current conference leaders
Also, sorry for the slight technical glitch, as the bracket will load fine, you just have to scroll really far down on page. This will be fixed ASAP, but I just want to post my bracket to give an idea of the bracket that will be produced, hopefully in an easier to read manner very soon.
Bracket:
A few anomalies that will likely change as the season goes on:
Right now, 5 Missouri Valley teams are in my bracket. The Valley is really strong this season, but likely will be a 3-4 bid conference come Selection Sunday.
Currently, George Mason is in as an at large. The Patriots are benificiaries of fact there are simply not 34 worthy at large teams as of now, but have very little margin for error if they want to make it in as an at large. A very good RPI of 41 is about all they have to hang their head on, but that's better than alternatives
As of now, the Big 12 and Pac 10 each only have 3 worthy teams. The thing is, unless a team not currently in gets on a major roll, it may not be a big anomaly. In the case of Big 12, neither Iowa State or Oklahoma can feel safe, but would sneak into field if tourament started today.
Nevada, despite a top 50 win and an RPI of 52, receives one of the final at large bids based purely of their performances in lats two tournaments, and the fact that they have one of college basketball's best players in Nick Fazekas. To receive an at large in March, the Wolfpack better pick up a couple of quality wins, and inch that RPI up to 40 or better.
Bid Breakdown:
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 ACC
5 SEC, Missouri Valley
3 Pac 10, Big 12
2 Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Colonial, WAC
Last Five Teams In:
Nevada, George Mason, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Miami-Florida
Last Five Teams Out:
Kansas State, Air Force, Clemson, Arkansas, Alabama
Teams in Bold are the current conference leaders
Also, sorry for the slight technical glitch, as the bracket will load fine, you just have to scroll really far down on page. This will be fixed ASAP, but I just want to post my bracket to give an idea of the bracket that will be produced, hopefully in an easier to read manner very soon.
Bracket:
1-22 Bracket
| PROJECTED BRACKET | |||||||||
| Mar 16/17 | Mar 18/19 | Mar 23 & 25 | Mar 24 & 26 | Mar 18/19 | Mar 16/17 | ||||
| Atlanta, GA | Washington, DC | ||||||||
| 1 | Duke | Connecticut | 1 | ||||||
| 16 | Southern | Elon | 16 | ||||||
| 8 | Marquette | North Carolina | 8 | ||||||
| 9 | UAB | Xavier | 9 | ||||||
| 4 | Tennessee | Washington | 4 | ||||||
| 13 | Western Kentucky | Manhattan | 13 | ||||||
| 5 | Iowa | Ohio State | 5 | ||||||
| 12 | Missouri State | Miami-Florida | 12 | ||||||
| 2 | Villanova | Illinois | 2 | ||||||
| 15 | Oral Roberts | Sacred Heart | 15 | ||||||
| 7 | George Washington | Vanderbilt | 7 | ||||||
| 10 | Oklahoma | Bucknell | 10 | ||||||
| 3 | Wisconsin | Florida | 3 | ||||||
| 14 | Louisiana Tech | Northwestern State | 14 | ||||||
| 6 | Creighton | Indianapolis | Syracuse | 6 | |||||
| 11 | Nevada | Final Four | Wisconsin-Milwauke | 11 | |||||
| Oakland, CA | Sat Apr 1 | Minneapolis, MN | |||||||
| 1 | Texas | Final | Memphis | 1 | |||||
| 16 | Northern Arizona | Mon Apr 3 | Play-In Winner | 16 | |||||
| 8 | Iowa State | Georgetown | 8 | ||||||
| 9 | Wichita State | Kentucky | 9 | ||||||
| 4 | Indiana | Pittsburgh | 4 | ||||||
| 13 | Akron | Tennessee Tech | 13 | ||||||
| 5 | North Carolina State | Northern Iowa | 5 | ||||||
| 12 | Old Dominion | Winthrop | 12 | ||||||
| 2 | West Virginia | Michigan State | 2 | ||||||
| 15 | UC Irvine | Delaware State | 15 | ||||||
| 7 | Arizona | LSU | 7 | ||||||
| 10 | Michigan | Boston College | 10 | ||||||
| 3 | Gonzaga | UCLA | 3 | ||||||
| 14 | UNLV | Pennsylvania | 14 | ||||||
| 6 | Maryland | Cincinnati | 6 | ||||||
| 11 | Southern Illinois | George Mason | 11 | ||||||
| Play-In Game | |||||||||
| Binghamton vs. Florida Atlantic | |||||||||
Welcome
Going into on our fourth season, a group of ten guys have worked to create what we think should be the 65 team NCAA Tournament field. In the previous 3 seasons, we have gotten 100 of 102 at large selections correct, and have performed at a higher level than notables like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi. The committee chair, Kyle Lamb, and I will offer updates on our thoughts a few times each week, along with our own projected brackets. As the process continues, the rest of the mock committee members will post their thoughts to give an indication of how this process works, and what shape teams are in and why they voted a certain way. Come Championship week, we will have daily updates on how the process is going, and how the goings-on in the conference tournament are effecting the selection of teams.
A couple of stats to show our performance last season:
33/34 at large teams correct
35/65 exact seed predicted
58/65 within one seed line
A couple of stats to show our performance last season:
33/34 at large teams correct
35/65 exact seed predicted
58/65 within one seed line
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