Z's Projecting the Field:
Well, until one of us computer wizards learns how to post an actual bracket, for now what we'll do is projecting the seeds. Kyle is finishing up his report shortly, and will hopefully post it. Here are my current thoughts on how the field in shaping up.
Road Warriors:
After not even being on my radar, Seton Hall proceeded to go to NC State and Syracuse, and emerge as a legitimate at large team. While not the flashiest squad, they have won 10 games in the Big East 2 of last 3 years, and with a star down low in Kelly Whitney, the Pirates have the ability to gain a permanent position. Forget the early season drubbing by Duke, this is a team that you cannot take lightly.
Paper Tigers:
Colorado and Air Force may spot gaudy records, but their profiles are thinner than a supermodel. Therefore, they can take those nice little records, and enjoy being the marquee teams in NIT. Air Force has yet to play a team in the RPI top 50(Washington, currently 56 is by far the best team they have played), and do not have a game against one scheduled the rest of the season. Colorado, which will have some opportunities in Big 12, currently sports 1 win vs an RPI top 50 team, the superpower known as UNC-Wilmington. And with RPI's of 47 and 49 respectively, neither is in a guaranteee position based on that.
The Great unknown:
Cincinnati boasts an at large worthy profile, but since starting 3 man Armein Kirkland went down vs UConn, they're 1-4, with three of those games being blowouts. At this point, you have to assume they are not nearly the same team without him, as an already thin team lost a key guy that they've yet to indicate they can replace. For now, they are not in my field, but it's a real tenuous situation. I can see arguments both ways on this, but other than proud effort at Xavier, and a home win over Rutgers, they have flat out stunk, with 77-58 loss to an overrated Syracuse team making clearest impression right now, enough so leave them out. If they rebound like Texas did last season without Tucker and Aldridge, they'll regain their spot in the field. If I had to put a number on it, 8-8 in Big East would be enough.
Watch Out:
Two very notable programs, Maryland and Syracuse, snuck into this week's bracket, but both are in very precarious positions. Syracuse is 1-6 vs top 50, Maryland 1-4, not to mention the Terps sterling 2-5 road/neutral record. While the ACC is definitely the easier conference to solidify themselves, Maryland's leading scorer, Chris McCray, is academically ineligible the rest of the season, so they also have to re-prove that they're a worthy NCAA Tournament team without him.
Lost opportunity:
One of last seasons top mid-major teams, Old Dominion, has really failed to build on last seasons strong showing, as they have already lost more games this regular season, 6, than they did during last year's excellent campaign, 5. While the Colonial is much stronger this year, there is no excuse for a team that returned all of its key guys to not improve on last year. With an RPI of 40, they are still in the at large discussion, but they had better curb the losing if they want to make the Big Dance without having to win an expected hard-fought CAA Tourney.
The Seeds:
1-Duke, UConn, Memphis, Villanova
2-Illinois, Texas, Michigan State, Pitt
3-UCLA, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Iowa
4-Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin
5-Ohio State, Indiana, LSU, Georgetown
6-NC State, Michigan, George Washington, Kentucky
7-Boston College, North Carolina, Washington, Marquette
8-Creighton, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wichita State
9-Seton Hall, Bucknell, Kansas, Xavier
10-Maryland, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Vanderbilt, Syracuse
11-Temple, Southern Illinois, Alabama, UAB
12-Arkansas, UAB, George Mason, Western Kentucky
13-Iona, Louisiana Tech, Akron, Northwestern State
14-Winthrop, San Diego State, Samford, Pennsylvania
15-Delaware State, IUPUI, UC Irvine, Albany
16-Lipscomb, Nortern Arizona, Central Connecticut State
Play-In Game:
Elon vs. Southern
Last five teams in:
UAB, Southern Illinois, Temple, Arkansas, Iowa State
Last five out:
Cincinnati, Colorado, Air Force, Miami-Florida, Old Dominion
Bid breakdown by conference
8-Big East
7-Big Ten, SEC
5-ACC
4-Big 12, Missouri Valley
3-Atlantic 10, Pac 10
2-Conference USA
Monday, January 30, 2006
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