Loyola Marymount almost did us a favor last night...

When the LMU player threw that little wrap-around baseline pass to a wide open Lion teammate on the block, I thought for sure Gonzaga had lost and my job had gotten much easier. Of course if you think it would have made it easier for me or the other nine mock committee members, just imagine the relief it would have created for the real 10 troopers that have millions of fans ready to critique their every move, their every misstep.

In our replicated bracket, Gonzaga is already on the at-large board. A win by the Lions over 'Zaga would have merely meant that one less spot would opened up this week for teams on the nomination board to be selected from. That would have meant a Bradley, Florida State, Air Force or Syracuse would have not made it.

With one current spot open on the at-large board now that Gonzaga has been added to the automatic bid list, at least one more team will be dancing on Sunday that isn't currently in our field. In totaling up the number of teams from the at-large board that could eventually win their automatic bid, the maximum number of spots that will open up for at-large teams is 10.

That means no more than 10 from a list of the following teams will make the tournament, and it will be even less if teams like George Washington or Nevada lose, or bubble teams or bottom feeders win the big conferences: Air Force, Alabama, Bradley, BYU, Bucknell (favored to win the automatic bid for the Patriot League anyhow), California, Charlotte, Colorado, Creighton, Florida State, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, San Diego State, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, UTEP and Utah State.

Last night, I went back and accumulated the records for our current list of 33 at-large teams and roughly 10 automatic bids and stacked up each nomination for how they have done against the field (teams that are already in) and how they have done against other teams being considered. Here were the highs and lows:

Alabama 6-5 against teams in the field (TIF) and 1-0 against teams under consideration (TUC)
Seton Hall 5-4 TIF; 1-0 TUC
Bradley 5-6 TIF; 3-1 TUC
Creighton 4-4 TIF; 1-2 TUC
Kentucky 4-8 TIF; 0-3 TUC
California 3-4 TIF; 2-1 TUC
Michigan 3-6 TIF; 1-1 TUC
Syracuse 3-8 TIF; 1-2 TUC
George Mason 2-1 TIF; 1-3 TUC
Houston 2-1 TIF; 1-2 TUC

Air Force 0-1 TIF; 1-1 TUC
Bucknell 0-3 TIF; 1-0 TUC
Florida State 1-5 TIF; 3-0 TUC
Texas A&M 1-5 TIF; 2-0 TUC
UAB 1-1 TIF; 2-2 TUC
Hofstra 1-2 TIF; 4-0 TUC

Using this criteria along with strength of schedule (SOS), records against top 50, quality wins, bad losses (outside of the top 100) as well as the average win and loss against the RPI, I proceeded to make my own bracket, which is the second to last one of the 2006 tournament season - the final one I'll produce on Sunday.

What I found was that I was having a relatively easy time picking the field until I got down to the last 5 or 6 at-large spots after the projected automatic bids had been removed from my board (this is assuming teams like Nevada and GW win their leagues).

I agree with our committee about Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Missouri State and Northern Iowa being in the field as of today, so I wound up including all 6 in my personal bracket yesterday.

But when it was all said and done, here are the teams I included and left out with a breakdown of why or why not for each one...

In

Alabama (RPI: 46) - The tide is 6-5 against TIF and 1-0 against others in consideration as mentioned above. They have played just nine (9) games against teams ranked below No. 100 in the RPI and only Duke and Connecticut have a better average of their collective wins against the RPI than does the Crimson Tide.

Bradley (34) - Although I felt the Braves would make it, and they did for me last night, it was a little closer than I expected. They were one of my last four to make the field along with Creighton, Texas A&M and Florida State. I had been thinking they would make the field ahead of Creighton, but now I don't believe that's the case. Creighton has a better record in the MVC including the conference tournament, Creighton is 3-1 against the RPI top 100 in the non-conference while Bradley is 2-1, Creighton had a tougher non-conference SOS (85) compared to Bradley's 153 and lastly, Bradley's lone top 50 road win is against Northern Iowa while Creighton has won at Northern Iowa and also at George Mason. However, the fact that Bradley is 7-6 against the top 50 and 7-3 in their last 10 games puts them in - barely, IMO.

Bucknell (51) - At one time, Bucknell was considered a safe pick even if they slipped up in the Patriot League Tournament, but now it's not such a sure thing. Their RPI has been falling like a rock in the ocean because of their conference schedule. What's worse is that their profile victory against Syracuse earlier in the season suddenly doesn't look so good. If they win their tournament, they are in anyhow. Right now they look like they are in even as an at-large bid, but then again, you have to wonder if they have enough to withstand a second bad loss outside the top 100 if they lose in their tournament.

California (59) - With wins @UCLA and then home against Washington and Arizona, a 12-6 Pac 10 record should get the Golden Bears in the field, albeit as a low seed. Their worst loss of the year against Eastern Michigan to begin the season was without star Leon Powe.

Creighton (42) - See Bradley

Florida State (56) - The Seminoles are a tough case. They have arguably the biggest win of any of the bubble teams (Duke), but little else. Their only other top 50 win was against Maryland, a team that has lost to pretty much every team they have faced ranked higher than they are. What's worse, Florida State is just 1-5 against the current mock selection committee field and has a non-conference SOS of 318 (122 overall). On the bright side, Florida State is 3-0 against other teams considered, is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they have only one loss outside the top 100 (Virginia Tech). I gave them the nod as my last team in, but I'm warming up slowly to their resume even more.

Kentucky (39) - I won't spend much time talking about the Wildcats because I think they're safe, but it's clear they are at least a better basketball team than they were in December or early January. Kentucky has no bad losses and a neutral court win against West Virginia highlights a moderately tough schedule.

Michigan (37) - The Wolverines do have three (3) wins against the RPI top 25, but all of those are at home. Although they have only one bad loss (Purdue) this season, injuries have resulted in a 4-6 finish. The committee will take those injuries into consideration and (I think) will cause them to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt. Howevever, Michigan's best win away from Crisler Arena (and only road top 100 win) was against Minnesota and they didn't distinguish themselves much in the non-conference season with their best wins coming against Butler, Miami (Fla) and Notre Dame. How much the committee gives them leeway for those injuries might tell the story on Michigan and whether they get in. With Lester Abram set to return, I tend to think they'll be given the benefit of the doubt.

Seton Hall (48) - Because of a poor finish and a combined 100-point-plus losses to Duke and Connecticut, the Pirates were left for dead a little over a week ago. However, a win against Cincinnati at home and then an upset win on the road against Pittsburgh this past week may have gotten Seton Hall in the field. They are now sitting with 5 wins against the top 50, including 3 on the road - Pittsburgh, N.C. State and Syracuse. I think they've done enough.

Texas A&M (49) - From a profile standpoint, A&M reminds me of the UAB teams the last couple of years except that they have a key victory (Texas). Of course, UAB also has a key win this year too, but more on that later. At 10-6 in the Big 12 and with the win against Texas, A&M's modest profile should get them in based on the fact they have no sub-100 losses and are 8-2 over their last 10 games. Their non-conference season wasn't stout, but there has been worse. The best part about A&M is that over half of their 7 losses came against the RPI top 50.

UAB (44) - Same story, different season. Weak schedule, no bad losses, and few key wins. Fortunately this year, they have a win against a top 5 team in Memphis. UAB should make it easily.

I'll examine the teams that I didn't include later.